本文以2020年2月6日至2020年2月19日日本“钻石公主号”邮轮上新冠肺炎感染人数为基础,首先建立灰色预测模型研究感染人数的趋势情况。接着,运用时间序列分析理论讨论灰色预测模型的残差是否为白噪声序列,以进一步建立相应的时间序列模型,从而提高灰色预测模型的精度。计算结果表明,该方法能有效地研究此封闭空间中的新冠肺炎确诊人数。Based on the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Japan “Diamond Princess” cruises from February 6, 2020 to February 19, 2020, we first establish the grey prediction model to study the trend of the number of confirmed cases. Then, the time series analysis theory is applied to discuss whether residuals of the grey prediction model are white noise sequence, so as to further build the corresponding time series models to improve the accuracy of the grey prediction model. The results show that the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in such a closed space can be effectively diagnosed by this method.
