Based on the data of 18 cases during the past 30 years from 1978 to 2007,the major meteorological conditions for outbreak of blue-green alga in Hongze Lake were analyzed.The results showed that the main meteorological conditions that affected the production and outbreak of blue-green alga were unusual high monthly average temperature,less precipitation and more sunshine hours in ten days.Through the selection of 1 or 0 factors on the values of above meteorological conditions over the years,if the conditions were accorded with the outbreak of blue-green alga,the factor was signed as 1,or it would be signed as 0;if there was outbreak of blue-green alga within ten days,it was signed as 1,or it would be signed as 0;crossing interrelated and integrated prediction method was adopted to establish the prediction equation for outbreak of blue-green alga,the historical fitting rate was 87.5%,and the predicting accuracy rate in 2008-2009 was 87.5%.In addition to meteorological conditions,outbreak of blue-green alga was also influenced by industrial pollutions,etc.,which should be considered in the forecasting procedures.
