The paper introduces the research progress in an emergency decision support system for marine pollution （EDSS） in China seas and elaborates on the possible role of the Neutron Activation Analysis （NAA） method therein. To deal with the increasingly grave situation of offshore pollution, the EDSS for China seas has been researching and developing. Based on the prediction and analysis of the ocean three-dimensional current field, this system makes an inference on the possible path of diffusion and influencing area of marine pollutants and possible location of pollution source, and in combination with the environmentally sensitive information related to the technical integration of GIS, it puts forward the decision, making support for minimizing the hazard caused by pollutants. This system has been operationalized and running for many years on the Bohai and Huanghai seas＇ Marine Pollutants Prediction and Early-Warning, and it has achieved successful experience for many times in the emergencies of China＇s coastal pollution accidents. At present, the environmental guarantee system directed against heavy metals and radioactive pollutants is in the experimental stage. As the NAA method is especially applicable to the detection of part of heavy metals and radioactive substances, it is of very important practical value for the new system to realize the monitoring, prediction and early-warning of ocean heavy metals and radioactive pollutants.
采用最大惩罚T检验(Penalized Maximum T Test,PMT)方法,结合海洋台站元数据信息,选取临近气象站做为参考站,对中国南海9个海洋观测台站月平均SST资料序列进行均一性检验,在充分考虑区域性气候变化因素的影响下,对检验结果进行气候合理性分析并对不连续点进行订正。结果表明:(1)通过多种数据的相关性比较和分析发现,临近气象站的气温资料序列是南海台站SST资料订正最优的参考序列;(2)平均每个海洋台站SST资料序列存在1~2个不连续点,其中站址变迁、仪器变更和环境变化对均一性的影响较大;(3)订正后的南海SST序列质量有大幅提高,表明南海SST具有更明显的增暖趋势。
基于Had ISST(Hadley Centre Sea-ice and Sea surface Temperature Data Set)的月平均海温(SST)资料,对1960-2012年中国近海冬季SST的长期变化趋势进行了详细分析。结果显示冬季SST经历了一个显著的升温过程,增幅达0.018℃/年,在80年代末期发生了显著的气候增暖过程。对东亚冬季风子系统与冬季东中国海SST关系的年代际变化进行了分析。结果发现在1960-2012年间,东亚冬季风5个关键子系统中,东亚大槽与东中国海冬季SST年际变率上关系最为密切。进一步研究发现,自20世纪80年代中期以来,东亚大槽和东中国海冬季SST都发生了明显的年代际变化,其中东亚大槽为年代际减弱,而东中国海冬季SST发生了年代际增暖。尽管1960-2012年间东亚大槽与东中国海冬季SST有显著的负相关关系,但这种统计相关在1989-2012年期间显著减弱。这种相关减弱的原因很可能是由于NPO(North Pacific Oscillation)的年代际变化背景下的东亚大槽的强度减弱有关。
