The key zones of returning farmland to forestland and grassland in Ningxia were studied. By using the ＂stepwise revised method＂,the climate productive potential,light and temperature productive potential in the zone in recent 50 years were counted. The light and temperature productive potential of corn in Ningxia irrigated area,the central arid zone and the southern mountain area presented the linear increase trend. But when considered the climate productive potentials of light,temperature and water,the numerical value was very low because of the scarce rainfall,and no agriculture without the irrigation. The light and temperature productive potential,climate productive potential of winter wheat in the central arid zone had no significant trend,but the variation range of climate productive potential was very big. The light and temperature productive potential of winter wheat in the southern mountain area had no significant variation trend,and the climate productive potential presented the weak decline trend. It illustrated that the productive of winter wheat was greatly restricted by the water content. By using the meteorological factor data which were simulated by RegCM3-WOFOST/LINGRA coupled model,the future climate productive potentials of winter wheat in the central south of Ningxia was counted. They both presented the weak increase trend. It illustrated that the climate in Ningxia was favorable to improve the yield of winter wheat after returning farmland to forestland.
为了获得宁夏灌区春小麦叶面积指数(Leaf Area Index,LAI)动态模拟的最佳方法,根据宁夏灌区典型农业试验观测站春小麦LAI的大田观测数据,分别运用农业气象学和遥感反演等方法模拟春小麦LAI的动态变化,并对两种方法的模拟精度进行综合对比分析。结果表明,运用分段函数(三叶至抽穗期运用遥感反演法,抽穗至乳熟期运用农业气象学法)能最优模拟春小麦全生育期LAI的动态变化。
