Traffic prediction plays an integral role in telecommunication network planning and network optimization. In this paper, we investigate the traffic forecasting for data services in 3G mobile networks. Although the Box-Jenkins model has been proven to be appropriate for voice traffic (since the arrival of calls follows a Poisson distribution), it has been demonstrated that the Internet traffic exhibits statistical self-similarity and has to be modeled using the Fractional AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (FARIMA) process. However, a few studies have concluded that the FARIMA process may fail in modeling the Internet traffic. To this end, we conducted experiments on the modeling of benchmark Internet traffic and found that the FARIMA process fails because of the significant multifractal characteristic inherent in the traffic series. Thereafter, we investigate the traffic series of data services in a 3G mobile network from a province in China. Rich multifractal spectra are found in this series. Based on this observation, an integrated method combining the AutoRegressive Moving Average (ARMA) and FARIMA processes is applied. The obtained experimental results verify the effectiveness of the integrated prediction method.
The host load prediction problem in cloud computing has also been received much attention. To solve this problem, we have to use the historical load data to predict the future load level. Accurate prediction methods are useful for host load balance and virtual machine migration. Although cloud is likely to grids at some extent, the length of tasks are much shorter and host loads change more frequently with higher noise. The above characteristics introduce challenges for host load prediction. In this paper, based on the proposed exponentially segmented pattern and the corresponding transformation, prediction problem is transformed into the traditional classification problem. This classification problem can be solved based on the traditional methods, and features are given for training the classification model. For achieving accurate prediction, a new feature periodical coefficient is introduced and some existed classification methods are implemented. Experiments on the real world dataset invalidate the efficiency of the new proposed feature, which is in the most effective combinations of features, it increases successful rate(SR) 1.33%~2.82% and decreases the mean square error(MSE) 1.37%~2.91%. And the results also show that support vector machine(SVM) method can achieve nearly the same performance as the Bayes methods and their performance is about 50% higher in successful rate and 17% better in the mean square error compared to the existed methods.
