LAPS(Local Analysis and Prediction System)采用物理初值化与三维变分约束相结合的方法,通过融合多源观测资料,发挥各种资料的优势,分析得到较为客观的三维云场,并可改善数值模式初始场。将FY-2E卫星可见光反照率和红外亮温资料引入LAPS,针对2014年6月登陆我国的台风"海贝思",设计不同水平分辨率的同化试验,研究台风三维云结构和初始场的改善情况。结果表明:1)LAPS云分析中引入卫星可见光反照率资料之后,总云量有显著的调整,能够较清晰地分辨出台风眼区、云墙和螺旋云带,卫星红外亮温资料在云顶高度的调整中发挥了重要作用,而且高分辨率的云分析结果有助于更好地分析出台风结构和强对流区域。2)LAPS物理初值化技术将卫星资料中的云结构和微物理信息添加到初始场中,一定程度上调整了数值模式初始场中垂直速度、云水、云冰和水汽场等变量的分布,提高了模式初值质量,对模拟和预报台风系统将会产生一定的影响。
The regional verification of soil moisture is a vital step in evaluating and improving numerical model performance and utilizing forecast results. Currently, even with improved spatial and temporal resolutions of numerical model, verification methods for soil moisture data still rely on the traditional intensity verification parameters, such as mean error(ME) and root-mean-squared error(RMSE). Those methods provide only incomplete and sometimes inaccurate messages and thus hinder a proper evaluation of a forecast model. The SAL method is an object-based regional verification method with respect to precipitation forecasts. Based on the SAL method, a novel object-based method(SAL-DN) is proposed here, which can be used to test regional soil moisture. Both the ideal experiment and real experiment show that the SAL-DN method can reveal the differences between the observed and forecast soil moisture in three aspects: structure, amplitude, and location, and the results can reflect the actual situation. Furthermore, compared with the SAL method, the SAL-DN method is also capable of verifying physical quantities with high-value and low-value centers like temperature. Therefore, the SAL-DN method enhances verification accuracy and can be applied widely.
SHI XiaoKangLIU JianWenLI YaoDongTIAN HuiLIU XiangPei
针对Local Analysis and Prediction System(LAPS)融合我国新一代多普勒雷达基数据时产生的资料空白问题,设计采用最大值和距离指数权重拼图方法来改进LAPS原有的最近邻居法,并且尝试通过最小二乘法来模拟静锥区的反射率值。试验结果表明,最大值法和距离指数权重法能够充分发挥多部雷达观测反射率的效能,有效地改善高仰角之间的资料空白现象,对静锥区也有一些的填补,特别是在对流层中层。最小二乘法拟合静锥区反射率试验取得了一定的效果,能够较好地拟合静锥区周围观测资料比较多的情况。该研究改善了LAPS同化国产多普勒雷达资料的能力,提高了多部雷达观测的利用效能,将会对LAPS分析产生积极的影响。
[Objective] The research aimed to analyze a rainstorm process in Chongqing. [Methed] Based on precipitation product datasets and NCEP reanalysis data, synoptic situation and diagnostic analysis of a heavy rain process during 11 -12 May, 2012 in Chongqing were made, and the diagnostic analysis included dynamic and vapor conditions, instability index, vapor helicity and vapor divergence flux. [ Result] The east-south moving short wave trough and east-north moving southwest vortex were the main synoptic systems causing the heavy rain; the positive vorticity advection before trough and after ridge helped the ascending motion from surface; the southwest stream at 700 hPa provided vapor and energy, promoting and maintaining the intense development of convection; the higher vapor helicity and lower vapor divergence flux were well corresponding with higher precipitation area, and had well temporal correlation, which was significant for forecast of precipitation area and its development; the ascended warm wet stream on the lower air came across the cold air on the upper air, triggering the heavy rain; the Kindex and A index were significant for the heavy rain forecasting. [ Conclusion] The research could provide some references for research and forecast of future rainstorm process in Sichuan and Chongqing.
The relationship between surface rain rate and depth of rain system （rain depth） over Southeast Asia is examined using 10-yr Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission （TRMM） precipitation radar （PR） measurements. Results show that, in general, a large surface rain rate is associated with a deep precipitating system, but a deep rain system may not always correspond with a large surface rain rate. This feature has a regional characteristic, Convective rain develops more frequently over land than over the ocean, while stratiform rain can extend to higher altitudes over the ocean than over land. A light surface rain rate has the largest probability to occur, regardless of rain depth. A convective rain system is more likely associated with a stronger surface rain rate than a stratiform rain system. Results show that precipitation systems involve complex microphysical processes. Rain depth is just one characteristic of precipitation. A linear relationship between surface rain rate and rain depth does not exist. Both deep convective and stratiform rain systems have reflectivity profiles that can be divided into three sections. The main difference in their profiles is at higher levels, from 4.5 km up to 19 km. For shallow stratiform rain systems, a two-section refiectivity profile mainly exists, while for convective systems a three-section profile is more common.
Using nine years of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission(TRMM)2A25 data,based on the probability density function of rainfall,a comparative analysis of the diurnal cycle and its seasonal and interannual variation for convective rain,stratiform rain,and total rain is made between the Tibetan Plateau and the downstream Yangtze River basin and East China Sea.The diurnal convective rain is stronger than the diurnal stratiform rain over the Yangtze River basin,and the convective rain peaks in the afternoon when the stratiform rain maximum happens in the early morning.Convective rain and stratiform rain both peak in the early morning over the East China Sea.The diurnal total rain over the Tibetan Plateau is stronger than its downstream regions.The diurnal cycle appears quite different among the four seasons over the Yangtze River basin,and the seasonal variation of diurnal convective rain is more apparent than diurnal stratiform rain.The seasonal variation of the diurnal cycle is weak over the East China Sea and Tibetan Plateau.The maximum of total rain happens in the afternoon during1998–2002 over the Yangtze River basin,while it peaks in the early morning during 2003–2006,but no obvious phase differences can be found among years in the diurnal rain over the East China Sea and over the Tibetan Plateau.
