Three typhoon cases are selected to conduct a series of simulations that are initialized from sequential analyses. The results show that the forecast error in crucial area where a tropical cyclone(TC) interactes with the upstream trough is highly correlated to the track forecast error after the TC recurvature. Furthermore, sensitivity experiments confirm that the developments of the midlatitude downstream circulations and then the TC track after its recurvature are highly sensitive to the TC intensity and its location relative to the upstream trough, which can give an example or one way of sensitivity of the TC track to the TC-trough interaction. If the TC interacts with the upstream trough more strongly(e.g., the TC being intensified or getting closer to the upstream trough), the downstream circulations will be more meridional, thus the TC track will be more northerly and westerly; otherwise, the downstream circulations will be more zonal, and the TC track will be more southerly and easterly.
The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, Japan Meteorological Agency(JMA) tropical cyclone tracks and intensive surface observations are used to diagnose the features of moisture transport of tropical storm Bilis(No. 0604), which is simulated by the WRF(weather research and forecasting) mesoscale numerical model. It is shown that the Bilis was linked with the moisture channel in the lower latitudes after its landing. Meanwhile, the cross-equatorial flows over 80°-100°E and Somali were active and brought abundant water vapor into the tropical storm, facilitating the maintenance of the landing storm with intensified heavy rainfall along its path. The simulation suggested that the decreased water vapor from lower latitudes prevents the maintenance of Bilis and the development of rainfall. While the cross-equatorial flows over 80°-100°E and Somali were in favor of keeping the cyclonic circulation over land. If the moisture supply fro m the Somali jet stream was reduced, the strength and area of heavy rainfall in tropical cyclone would be remarkably weakened. Consequently, the decreased water vapor from lower latitudes can remarkably suppress the deep convection in tropical storm, then Bilis was damped without the persistent energy support and the rainfall was diminished accordingly.
This study uses eddy kinetic energy analysis and a targeting method to investigate how an extratropical transition(ET)event induced downstream development(the modification of the midlatitude flow downstream of the ET system) in the midlatitude jet environment. The downstream development showed distinct characteristics of "coupling development" and being "boundary-trapped". Eddies(potential disturbances) first developed at the upper levels, and these triggered lower-level eddy development, with all eddies decaying away from the tropopause and the surface. Thereafter, a lower-level eddy caught up with the upper-level eddy ahead of it, and they coupled to form a cyclone extending through the whole troposphere. Vertical ageostrophic geopotential flux may be a crucial dynamic factor throughout the eddy's lower-level growth, boundary-trapping,and coupling development.Together with barotropic conversion, the ageostrophic geopotential fluxes that were transported from Hurricane Fabian(2003) to the midlatitudes by the outflow led to downstream ridge development in the upper-level jet. The strong downstream advection of eddy kinetic energy in the exit region of the jet streak triggered downstream trough development. The well-known ridge–trough couplet thus formed. The vertical ageostrophic fluxes that were transported downward from the developed upper-level systems converged near the surface and resulted in lower-level eddy growth. Baroclinic conversion was negligible near the boundaries, while it was the main source of eddy kinetic energy at mid-levels. In the upper-level jet, potential energy was converted to the mean kinetic energy of the jet, which in turn was converted to eddy kinetic energy through barotropic conversion.
We diagnose characteristics of the quasi-balanced flow and secondary circulation(SC) of tropical storm Bilis(2006) using the potential vorticity(PV)-ω inversion method.We further analyze how secondary steering flows associated with mesoscale convective systems affected the track of tropical storm Bilis after it made landfall.The quasi-balanced asymmetric and axisymmetric circulation structures of tropical storm Bilis are represented well by the PV-w inversion.The magnitude of the nonlinear quasi-balanced vertical velocity is approximately 75%of the magnitude simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model.The SC of Bilis(2006) contained two strong regions of ascending motion,both of which were located in the southwest quadrant of the storm.The first(150-200 km southwest of the storm center) corresponded to the eyewall region,while the second(approximately 400 km southwest of the storm center) corresponded to latent heat release associated with strong precipitation in major spiral rainbands.The SC was very weak in the northeast quadrant(the upshear direction).Dynamical processes related to the environmental vertical wind shear produced an SC that partially offset the destructive effects of the environmental vertical wind shear(by 20%-25%).This SC consisted of upward motion in the southwest quadrant and subsidence in the northeast quadrant,with airflow oriented from southwest to northeast at high altitudes and from northeast to southwest at lower levels.The inverted secondary zonal and meridional steering flows associated with continuous asymmetric mesoscale convective systems were about-2.14 and-0.7 m s^(-1),respectively.These steering flows contributed substantially to the zonal(66.15%) and meridional(33.98%) motion of the storm at 0000 UTC15 July 2006.The secondary steering flow had a significant influence on changing the track of Bilis from southward to northward.The direction of the large-scale meridional steering flow(3.02 m s^(-1)) was