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国家自然科学基金(41101083)

作品数:4 被引量:75H指数:4
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Estimation of urbanization bias in observed surface temperature change in China from 1980 to 2009 using satellite land-use data被引量:21
2012年
Since the 1980s,China has undergone rapid urbanization.Meanwhile,the climate has been warming substantially.In this paper,the urbanization effect on observed temperatures from 1980 to 2009 in China is estimated,based on analysis of urban land use from satellite observation.Urban land-use expansion(U) during 1980-2005 is applied as an urbanization index.According to these U values,stations are divided into three categories:(C1) intense urbanization around the stations;(C2) moderate urbanization around the stations;and(C3) minimal urbanization around the stations.Most C1 stations are in municipalities or provincial capitals,while C2 stations tend to be in prefecture-level cities.C3 stations are mostly in counties.The urban heat island(UHI) effect can be estimated if the urban effect on C3 is negligible.The warming of C1 or C2 relative to that of C3 represents their urbanization effects,assuming that the same larger-scale natural warming has affected each category.For C1,the local urbanization effect is 0.258°C/10 a over 1980-2009,accounting for 41% of the total warming;the trend at C2 is 0.099°C/10 a,or 21%.For all China,the urbanization effect is 0.09°C/10a,accounting for 20% of the total national warming.Winter urban warming is greater than in summer.The assumption of negligible urbanization effect on C3 is debatable,and so the true urbanization effect may equal or slightly exceed estimates.Further,the U index may have some uncertainties,for it is only one of the urbanization indices.However,it provides a new and direct estimation of environmental change,in contrast to indirect indices.
WANG Fang GE QuanSheng
关键词:快速城市化城市土地利用城市化效应
对全球变暖认识的七个问题的确定与不确定性被引量:33
2014年
全球变暖是国际社会广泛关注的问题。由于以人类目前的认识水平,尚无法完全了解气候变化的内在规律,因此目前对气候变暖认识的确定性与不确定性并存。本文旨在归纳总结目前对全球变暖的认识哪些是确定的,哪些是不确定的,并提出相关建议。气候系统涵盖很多方面,本文重点关注与人类活动造成的气候变暖相关的七个问题。①对全球变暖的认识:近百年全球气候确实在变暖,但为什么又出现了停滞?②对大气中温室气体浓度上升的认识:工业革命以来大气温室气体浓度快速升高是确定的,但未来如何变化有不确定性;③对温室气体排放与气温升高的关系(气候敏感度)的认识:在现代大气CO2浓度加倍会导致全球平均增温约3.0℃,但是在更长时间尺度上气候敏感度是不确定的;④对于气候模式的认识:它能够很好地模拟出近百年的气候变暖趋势,且证明人类活动可能是现代气候变暖的主要原因,但模式不能充分描述地球系统的变化,只能表征地球系统的部分特征;⑤对于气候预估的认识:根据排放情景预估本世纪气候继续变暖,但还将变暖多少不确定;⑥对于2℃阈值的认识:它是人类控制升温的一个设想,作为应对气候变化的约束性目标,但是升温幅度何时达到2℃不确定;⑦对于地球系统临界点的认识:地球系统已有一些危险的信号,但何时达到临界点不确定。在适应和减缓全球变暖、调整产业结构等应对行动中,应全面、综合考虑气候变化认识的确定性与不确定性,应对确定性的变化,规避不确定性的风险。
葛全胜王芳王绍武程邦波
关键词:全球变暖不确定性
根据卫星观测的城市用地变化估算中国1980~2009年城市热岛效应被引量:16
2012年
1980~2009年是中国城市化发展的显著时期,也是气温上升剧烈的时期.本文基于卫星观测的城市土地利用数据,分析了1980~2009年中国城市化对地表观测气温的影响.城市用地指标采用1980~2005年的城市用地扩张量(ΔU),根据该指标将全国气象站点分为3类:(C1)站点周围城市化剧烈;(C2)站点周围城市化较明显;(C3)站点周围城市化微弱.结果表明C1类城市以中国的直辖市和省会城市为主,C2类城市以地级市为主,C3类城市以县城为主.鉴于C3类城市的ΔU很小,因此认为其温度可能受城市用地变化的影响不显著.如果三类城市受全球变暖的影响类似,则C1类或C2类城市的增温减去C3类城市的增温就可能在较大程度上去除全球变暖的影响,而突出城市化对局地温度的贡献.结果表明,C1类城市化对局地温度的影响为0.258℃/10a,占总增温幅度的41%;C2类对局地温度的影响为0.099℃/10a,占总增温幅度的21%.在全国尺度上,城市用地变化的影响为0.27℃/30a或0.09℃/10a,占总增温幅度的20%,且冬季高于夏季.由于C3类城市可能并非完全不受城市化影响,因此,这里计算得到的可能是城市化影响的最低值,实际影响可能略高于该值.此外,土地利用变化只是研究城市热岛效应的一个途径,但是这个指标比人口数量、夜晚光亮度等指标更直接地反映了地理环境的变化.
王芳葛全胜
关键词:城市化土地利用变化热岛效应
Abrupt Climate Changes of Holocene被引量:6
2013年
This paper is a review of studies of abrupt climate changes(ACCs) during the Holocene published during the past ten years.North Atlantic cold events are indicators of ACCs.As indicated by North Atlantic ice-rafted debris(IRD),there were nine confirmed cold events during the Holocene,occurring at 11.1 kyr,10.3 kyr,9.4 kyr,8.1 kyr,5.9 kyr,4.2 kyr,2.8 kyr,1.4 kyr,and 0.4 kyr respectively according to most representative results from Bond et al.(1997).However,the identification of chronology has been made with some uncertainties.Considerable climatic proxy data have shown that,during the cold events,substantial climate abnormalities have occurred widely across the globe,particularly in the areas surrounding the North Atlantic.These abnormalities were in the form of high-latitude cold in the both hemispheres,expansion of the Westerlies to low latitudes,drought in the monsoon regions,recession of summer monsoons,and intensification of the winter monsoons.Studies have indicated that the four ACCs occurring in the early Holocene may be related to freshwater pulses from ice melting in the northern part of the North Atlantic,and the other five ACCs that occurred during the middle and late Holocene may be related to the decreased solar activity.
WANG ShaowuGE QuanshengWANG FangWEN XinyuHUANG Jianbin
关键词:中晚全新世气候突变区域管制中心低纬度地区冷事件
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