In this study, the period that corresponds to the threshold of a 1.5℃ rise (relative to 1861e1880) in surface temperature is validated using a multi-model ensemble mean from 17 global climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). On this basis, the changes in permafrost and snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere are investigated under a scenario in which the global surface temperature has risen by 1.5℃, and the uncertainties of the results are further discussed. The results show that the threshold of 1.5℃ warming will be reached in 2027, 2026, and 2023 under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5, respectively. When the global average surface temperature rises by 1.5℃, the southern boundary of the permafrost will move 1e3.5 northward (relative to 1986e2005), particularly in the southern Central Siberian Plateau. The permafrost area will be reduced by 3.43x106 km2 (21.12%), 3.91x106 km2 (24.1%) and 4.15x106 km2 (25.55%) relative to 1986e2005 in RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The snow water equivalent will decrease in over half of the regions in the Northern Hemisphere but increase only slightly in the Central Siberian Plateau. The snow water equivalent will decrease significantly (more than 40% relative to 1986e2005) in central North America, western Europe, and northwestern Russia. The permafrost area in the QinghaieTibet Plateau will decrease by 0.15x106 km2 (7.28%), 0.18x 106 km2 (8.74%), and 0.17x106 km2 (8.25%), respectively, in RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5. The snow water equivalent in winter (DJF) and spring (MAM) over the QinghaieTibet Plateau will decrease by 14.9% and 13.8%, respectively.
Permafrost is one of the key components of terrestrial ecosystem in cold regions. In the context of climate change, few studies have investigated resilience of social ecological system(SER) from the perspective of permafrost that restricts the hydrothermal condition of alpine grassland ecosystem. In this paper, based on the structural dynamics, we developed the numerical model for the SER in the permafrost regions of the source of Yangtze and Yellow Rivers, analyzed the spatial-temporal characteristics and sensitivity of the SER, and estimated the effect of permafrost change on the SER. The results indicate that: 1) the SER has an increasing trend, especially after 1997, which is the joint effect of precipitation, temperature, NPP and ecological conservation projects; 2) the SER shows the spatial feature of high in southeast and low in northwest,which is consistent with the variation trends of high southeast and low northwest for the precipitation, temperature and NPP, and low southeast and high northwest for the altitude; 3) the high sensitive regions of SER to the permafrost change have gradually transited from the island distribution to zonal and planar distribution since 1980, moreover, the sensitive degree has gradually reduced; relatively, the sensitivity has high value in the north and south, and low value in the south and east; 4) the thickness of permafrost active layer shows a highly negative correlation with the SER. The contribution rate of permafrost change to the SER is-4.3%, that is, once the thickness of permafrost active layer increases 1 unit, the SER would decrease 0.04 units.
High-risk areas for glacial lake outburst flood(GLOF) disasters in China are mainly concentrated in the middle-eastern Himalayas and Nyainqe?ntanglha(Nyenchen Tanglha Mountains), Tibetan Plateau. In the past 20 years, glaciers in these regions have retreated and thinned rapidly as a response to regional climate warming,leading to the formation of new glacial lakes and the expansion of existing glacial lakes. These areas are located in the border belt between the Indian and the Eurasian plates, where tectonic seismic activity is also frequent and intense. Earthquakes have often compromised the stability of mountain slopes, glaciers, and moraine dams, resulting in an imbalance in the state of glacial lakes and an increase of loose materials in valleys. It is foreseeable that the possibility of GLOFs and disaster occurrence will be great in the context of frequent earthquakes and continued climate warming. This article presents the temporal and spatial characteristics of GLOF disasters, as well as the conditions and mechanisms of GLOF disaster formation,and proposes an integrated risk management strategy to cope with GLOF disasters. It aims to facilitate the mitigation of the impacts of GLOF disasters on mountain economic and social systems, and improve disaster risk analysis, as well as the capability of risk management and disaster prevention and reduction.
The characteristics of seasonal precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau(TP) were investigated using TRMM(Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) precipitation data(3B43). Sensitive regions of summer precipitation interannual variation anomalies were investigated using EOF(empirical orthogonal function) analysis. Furthermore, the profiles of cloud water content(CWC) and precipitable water in different regions and seasons were analyzed using TRMM-3A12 data observed by the TRMM Microwave Imager. Good agreement was found between hydrometeors and precipitation over the eastern and southeastern TP, where water vapor is adequate, while the water vapor amount is not significant over the western and northern TP.Further analysis showed meridional and zonal anomalies of CWC centers in the ascending branch of the Hadley and Walker Circulation, especially over the south and east of the TP. The interannual variation of hydrometeors over the past decade showed a decrease over the southeastern and northwestern TP, along with a corresponding increase over other regions.
Grassland-based animal husbandry and livestock production is the main contributor to livelihood creation for herdsmen.By using the structural dynamics method,this study quantified the changes in the food supply capacity(FSC)of alpine grassland ecosystem and sensitivity to significant variables.The findings indicated that:i)Natural factors were the dominated forces affecting FSC,and their contribution was 71.3%.Of these natural elements,the net primary productivity(NPP)and precipitation were the largest contributors,accounting for approximately 35%.The sensitivity index of the FSC to NPP and precipitation during grassland growing season were 4.1 and 1.9 respectively.On the contrary,human factors like warm shed area,density of road,capacity for access to information,contributed to 28.7%of the total FSC.ii)More intense snow disaster had a larger negative impact on FSC.Snow disaster can cause dramatic reduction in FSC,with a loss rate of 27.6%and with none intense disaster more negative impacts,iii)The continuing increase of FSC in the past 30 years from 1984 to 2014 was due to the significant increase of precipitation and NPP in the growing season of alpine grassland.Evidently,successful adaptation to climate change was critical to combat the climatic adversely impact on FSC.Typically,strengthening information dissemination,road accessibility and knowledge popularization of local residents'disaster reduction should be place high priority for improving FSC。
