With the vigorous promotion of energy conservation and implementation of clean energy strategies,China＇s natural gas industry has entered a rapid development phase,and natural gas is playing an increasingly important role in China＇s energy structure.This paper uses a Generalized Weng model to forecast Chinese regional natural gas production,where accuracy and reasonableness compared with other predictions are enhanced by taking remaining estimated recoverable resources as a criterion.The forecast shows that China＇s natural gas production will maintain a rapid growth with peak gas of 323 billion cubic meters a year coming in 2036;in 2020,natural gas production will surpass that of oil to become a more important source of energy.Natural gas will play an important role in optimizing China＇s energy consumption structure and will be a strategic replacement of oil.This will require that exploration and development of conventional natural gas is highly valued and its industrial development to be reasonably planned.As well,full use should be made of domestic and international markets.Initiative should also be taken in the exploration and development of unconventional and deepwater gas,which shall form a complement to the development of China＇s conventional natural gas industry.
能源投入回报(Energy Return on Investment,EROI)在1984年正式提出后,受全球能源生产放缓、油价剧烈波动等因素影响,受到越来越多的关注。国外学者进行了深入研究包括测算常规化石能源、非常规化石能源以及可再生能源等的EROI值,但国内相关研究甚少,因此,本文主要目的是通过系统分析EROI研究现状和趋势为国内学者研究提供参考。本文总结了目前国内外已测算出的常规油气、页岩气、生物能等的EROI值,发现化石能源EROI呈现下降趋势,新能源的EROI值较常规化石能源明显偏低。未来需要进一步研究的领域主要包括:非常规能源和新能源EROI值的测算;EROI与传统能源评价方法的结合;考虑环境破坏所产生能源成本下EROI的计算;考虑技术进步等因素下能源消耗的预测;研究EROI与经济发展、生活水平等方面关系。
Low oil prices under the influence of economic structure transformation and slow economic growth have hit the existing markets of traditional big oil suppliers and upgraded the conflict of oil production capacity and interest between OPEC producers and other big oil supplier countries such as the USA and Russia. Forecasting global oil production is significant for all countries for energy strategy planning, although many past forecasts have later been proved to be very seriously incorrect. In this paper,the original generalized Weng model is expanded to a multi-cycle generalized Weng model to better reflect the multi-cycle phenomena caused by political, economic and technological factors. This is used to forecast global oil production based on parameter selection from a large sample, depletion rate of remaining resources, constraints on oil reserves and cycle number determination. This research suggests that the world will reach its peak oil production in 2022, at about 4340×10~6 tonnes. China needs to plan for oil import diversity, a domestic oil production structure based on the supply pattern of large oil suppliers worldwide and the oil demand for China＇s own development.
Yi JinXu TangCui-Yang FengJian-Liang WangBao-Sheng Zhang
