There are many uncertain factors,such as stochastic,fuzzy and gray information in the risk analysis on natural hazard.The set pair analysis(SPA)deals effectively with the various uncertain factors contributing to evaluation of the risk level of natural disasters.The evaluation indicators and standards of natural disasters risk are analyzed by identity-discrepancycontrary(IDC).The result,the connection numbers,still has uncertainty information.Thus,yielding the risk evaluation model of natural disasters based on connection function,which construct a set pair relation between the indicators of connection numbers and comprehensive evaluation standards,and describe uncertainty of the connection numbers by using connection function.The study showed that the proposed model takes into account only the uncertainty of risk evaluation indicator identification on natural disasters,also the uncertainty of result connection numbers.This approach gives full consideration to the uncertainty of systematic evaluation process along with the actual meaning of comprehensive evaluation functions.Therefore,this means it is able to reduce the uncertainty of final evaluation results and improve the accuracy and reasonability of evaluation results.This model is capable of reflecting actual situation of the risk evaluation on natural disaster affected by various uncertain factors and has a promotional value in the natural disaster risk assessment.
In the mid-eastern China,there are few or no lakes which are in the absence of anthropogenic disturbances,or their sediments remain undisturbed.As a result,the reference lakes distribution and paleolimnological reconstruction approaches usually are inappropriate to estimate lake reference conditions for nutrients.This yields the necessity of using the extrapolation methods to estimate the lake reference conditions for nutrients within those regions.The lake reference conditions for nutrients could be inferred inversely from the law of mass conservation,current lake nutrient concentration,and the loadings from watershed.Considering the scarcity of hydrological and water quality data associated with lakes and watersheds in China,as well as the low requirement of the watershed nutrient loadings models for these data,the soil conservation service(SCS) distributed hydrological model and the universal soil loss equation(USLE) were applied.The SCS model simulates the runoff process of the watershed,thereby calculating dissolved nutrients annually.The USLE estimates the soil erosion and particulate nutrients annually in a watershed.Then,with the loadings from atmospheric deposition and point source,the previous annual average nutrient concentrations could be acquired given the current nutrient concentrations in a lake.Therefore,the nutrient reference conditions minimally impacted by human activities could be estimated.Based on the proposed model,the reference conditions for total nitrogen and total phosphorus of Chaohu Lake,Anhui Province,China are 0.031 mg/L and 0.640 mg/L,respectively.The proposed reference conditions estimation model is of clear physical concept,and less data required.Thus,the proposed approach can be used in other lakes with similar circumstances.
