Based on instability theory and some former studies, the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation （SODA） data are analyzed to further study the difference between the propagation of the ENSO-related oceanic anomaly in the off-equatorial North Pacific Ocean before and after 1976. The investigation shows that after 1976 in the off-equatorial North Pacific Ocean, there is a larger area where the necessary conditions for baroclinic and/or barotropic instability are satisfied, which may help oceanic anomaly signals propagating in the form of Rossby waves to absorb energy from the mean currents so that they can grow and intensify. The baroclinic energy conversion rate in the North Pacific after 1976 is much higher than before 1976, which indicates that the baroclinic instability has intensified since 1976. Prom another perspective, the instability analysis gives an explanation of the phenomena that the ENSO-related oceanic anomaly signal in the North Pacific has intensified since 1976.
The changes in the thermohaline circulation （THC） because of the increased CO2 in the atmosphere play an important role in future climate regimes. In this article, a new climate model developed at the Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology is used to study the variation in THC strength, the changes of North Atlantic deep-water （NADW） formation, and the regional responses of the THC in the North Atlantic to increasing atmospheric CO2. From 2000 to 2100, under increased CO2 scenarios （B1, AIB, and A2）, the strength of THC decreases by 4 Sv （106 m^3/s）, 5.1 Sv, and 5.2 Sv, respectively, equivalent to a reduction of 20%, 25%, and 25.1% of the present THC strength. The analyses show that the oceanic deep convective activity significantly strengthens in the Greenland-leeland-Norway （GIN） Seas owing to saltier （denser） upper oceans, whereas weakens in the Labrador Sea and in the south of the Denmark Strait region （SDSR） because of surface warming and freshening due to global warming. The saltiness of the GIN Seas is mainly caused by the increase of the saline North Atlantic inflow through the Faro-Bank （FB） Channel. Under the scenario A1B, the deep-water formation rate in the North Atlantic decreases from 16.2 Sv to 12.9 Sv with increasing CO2.
A new climate model (ECHAM5/MPI-OM1) developed for the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) at Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology is used to study the climate changes under the different increased CO2 scenarios (B1, A1B and A2). Based on the corresponding model results, the sea surface temperature and salinity structure, the variations of the thermohaline circulation (THC) and the changes of sea ice in the northern hemisphere are analyzed. It is concluded that from the year of 2000 to 2100, un- der the B1, A1B and A2 scenarios, the global mean sea surface temperatures (SST) would increase by 2.5℃, 3.5℃ and 4.0℃ respectively, especially in the region of the Arctic, the increase of SST would be even above 10.0℃; the maximal negative value of the variation of the fresh water flux is located in the sub- tropical oceans, while the precipitation in the eastern tropical Pacific increases. The strength of THC de- creases under the B1, A1B and A2 scenarios, and the reductions would be about 20%, 25% and 25.1% of the present THC strength respectively. In the north- ern hemisphere, the area of the sea ice cover would decrease by about 50% under the A1B scenario.
From the synopical CTD sections in the WOCE PR11 repeated cruises, the South Pacific Subtropical Mode Water (SPSTMW) has been identified in the region of the Tasman Front Extension (TFE) around 29?S to the east of Australia. In the depth range of 150-250 m, the SPSTMW appears as a thermostad with vertical temperature gradient lower than 1.6℃(100 m)-1 and a tem- perature range of 16.5-19.5℃ and as a pycnostad with PV lower than 2×10-10 m-1 s-1 and a potential density range of 25.4-26.0 kg m-3. Like the subtropical mode waters in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, the formation of the SPSTMW is associated with the convective mixing during the austral wintertime as manifested from the time series of the Argo floats. And cold water entrains into the mixed layer with the deepening mixed layer from September to the middle of October. During the wintertime formation process, mesoscale eddies prevailing in the TFE region play an important role in the SPSTMW formation, and have a great effect on the SPSTMW distribution in the next year. The deeper (shallower) mixed layer in wintertime, consistent with the depressed (uplifted) permanent thermocline, is formed by the anticyclonic (cyclonic) eddies, and the substantial mode water thicker than 50 m is mainly found in the region of the anticyclonic eddies where the permanent thermocline is deeper than 450 m.
