Based on gridded meteorological data for the period 1981–2100 from the RegCM3 regional model, the changing trends of climatic resources in Northeast China are analyzed, and the distributions of maize varieties are accordingly adjusted. In order to explore the effects of different adaptation countermeasures on climatic productivity and meteorological suitability in the future, maize cultivars with resistance to high temperatures and/or drought are selected. The results show that, in the future, there is likely to be a significant increase in thermal resources, and potential atmospheric evaporation will increase correspondingly.Meanwhile, radiation is predicted to increase significantly during 2041–2070 in the growing season. However, changes in precipitation are unlikely to be sufficient enough to offset the intensification in atmospheric evaporation caused by the temperature increase. Water resources and high temperatures are found to be the two major factors constraining grain yield. The results also show that the warming climate will be favorable for maize production where thermal resources are already limited, such as in central and northern Heilongjiang Province and eastern Jilin Province; while in areas that are already relatively warm, such as Liaoning Province, climatic productivity will be reduced. The climatic productivity and the meteorological suitability of maize are found to improve when the planting of resistant varieties is modeled. The utilization of agricultural climatic resources through the adaptation countermeasures of maize varieties is to increase obviously with time. Specifically, maize with drought-resistant properties will have a marked influence on meteorological suitability during 2011–2070, with suitable areas expanding. During 2071–2100, those maize varieties with their upper limit of optimum temperature and maximum temperature increased by 2℃, or water requirement reduced to 94%, or upper limit of optimum temperature and maximum temperature increased by 1℃ and water requi
Crop yields are affected by climate change and technological advancement.Objectively and quantitatively evaluating the attribution of crop yield change to climate change and technological advancement will ensure sustainable development of agriculture under climate change.In this study,daily climate variables obtained from 553 meteorological stations in China for the period 1961-2010,detailed observations of maize from 653 agricultural meteorological stations for the period 1981-2010,and results using an Agro-Ecological Zones(AEZ) model,are used to explore the attribution of maize(Zea mays L.) yield change to climate change and technological advancement.In the AEZ model,the climatic potential productivity is examined through three step-by-step levels:photosynthetic potential productivity,photosynthetic thermal potential productivity,and climatic potential productivity.The relative impacts of different climate variables on climatic potential productivity of maize from 1961 to 2010 in China are then evaluated.Combined with the observations of maize,the contributions of climate change and technological advancement to maize yield from 1981 to 2010 in China are separated.The results show that,from 1961 to 2010,climate change had a significant adverse impact on the climatic potential productivity of maize in China.Decreased radiation and increased temperature were the main factors leading to the decrease of climatic potential productivity.However,changes in precipitation had only a small effect.The maize yields of the 14 main planting provinces in China increased obviously over the past 30 years,which was opposite to the decreasing trends of climatic potential productivity.This suggests that technological advancement has offset the negative effects of climate change on maize yield.Technological advancement contributed to maize yield increases by 99.6%-141.6%,while climate change contribution was from-41.4%to 0.4%.In particular,the actual maize yields in Shandong,Henan,Jilin,and Inner Mongolia increased by 98.4,90.4,98.7
