This paper presents an evaluation of the observational impacts on blended sea surface winds from a twodimensional variational data assimilation(2D-Var) scheme. We begin by briefly introducing the analysis sensitivity with respect to observations in variational data assimilation systems and its relationship with the degrees of freedom for signal(DFS), and then the DFS concept is applied to the 2D-Var sea surface wind blending scheme. Two methods, a priori and a posteriori, are used to estimate the DFS of the zonal(u) and meridional(v) components of winds in the 2D-Var blending scheme. The a posteriori method can obtain almost the same results as the a priori method.Because only by-products of the blending scheme are used for the a posteriori method, the computation time is reduced significantly. The magnitude of the DFS is critically related to the observational and background error statistics. Changing the observational and background error variances can affect the DFS value. Because the observation error variances are assumed to be uniform, the observational influence at each observational location is related to the background error variance, and the observations located at the place where there are larger background error variances have larger influences. The average observational influence of u and v with respect to the analysis is about40%, implying that the background influence with respect to the analysis is about 60%.
Ting WANGJie XIANGJianfang FEIYi WANGChunxia LIUYuanxiang LI
The Tibetan Plateau, with an average altitude above 4000 m, is the highest and largest plateau in the world. The frequency of thunderstorms in this region is extremely high. Many indices are used in operational forecasting to assess the stability of the atmosphere and predict the probability of severe thunderstorm development. One of the disadvantages of many of these indices is that they are mainly based on observations from plains. However, considering the Plateau's high elevation, most convective parameters cannot be applied directly, or their application is ineffective. The pre-convective environment on thunderstorm days in this region is investigated based on sounding data obtained throughout a five-year period(2006–10).Thunderstorms occur over the Tibetan Plateau under conditions that differ strikingly from those in plains. On this basis,stability indices, such as the Showalter index(including SI and SICCL), and the K index are improved to better assess the thunderstorm environments on the Plateau. Verification parameters, such as the true-skill statistic(TSS) and Heidke skill score(HSS), are adopted to evaluate the optimal thresholds and relative forecast skill for each modified index. Lastly, the modified indices are verified with a two-year independent dataset(2011–12), showing satisfactory results for the modified indices. For determining whether or not a thunderstorm day is likely to occur, we recommend the modified SICCLindex.
