The purpose of this paper is to document the likely impacts of climate change on China’s agriculture and the current adaptation efforts made by government and farmers.The review of literature shows that climate change will have a significant impact on agriculture,primarily through its effect on crop yields.The extent of predicted impacts highly depends on the crop,the CO2 fertilization effect assumption and adaptation abilities.Market response to the production shocks resulting from climate change will lessen the impacts on agricultural production predicted by natural scientists.On adaptation,the government’s major efforts have been in the developing new technologies,reforming extension system and enhancing institutional capacity.Farmers do adapt to climate change,but their adaptation measures cannot fully offset the negative impacts of climate change.The paper concludes and makes implications for future studies.
The overall goal of this paper is to examine impacts of climate change on water supply and demand balance and their consequences on agricultural production in ten river basins in China. To realize this goal, China Water Simulation Model (CWSM) is used to analyze three alternative climate scenarios (A1B, A2 and B2). The results show that the impacts of climate change on water supply and demand balance differ largely among alternative scenarios. While significant impacts of climate change on water balance will occur under the A1B scenario, the impacts of climate change under the A2 and B2 scenarios will be marginal. Under the A1B scenario, the water shortage in the river basins located in the northern China will become more serious, particularly in Liaohe and Haihe river basins, but the other river basins in the southern China will improve their water balance situations. Despite larger impacts of climate change on water balance in the northern China, its impacts on total crops' production will be moderate if farmers would be able to reallocate water among crops and adjust irrigated and rainfed land. The paper concludes with some policy implications.
Apart from the long-term effects of climate change, the frequency and severity of extreme weather events have been increasing. Given the risks posed by climate change, particularly the changes in extreme weather events, the question of how to adapt to these changes and mitigate their negative impacts has received great attention from policy makers. The overall goals of this study are to examine whether farmers adapt to extreme weather events through crop diversification and which factors influence farmers' decisions on crop diversification against extreme weather events in China. To limit the scope of this study, we focus on drought and flood events only. Based on a unique large-scale household survey in nine provinces, this study finds that farmers respond to extreme weather events by increasing crop diversification. Their decision to diversify crops is significantly influenced by their experiences of extreme weather events in the previous year. Such results are understandable because farmers' behaviors are normally based on their expectations. Moreover, household characteristics also affect farmers' decisions on crop diversification strategy, and their effects differ by farmers' age and gender. This paper concludes with several policy implications.
Under climate change, rising frequency and serious extreme weather events have challenged agricultural production. Designing appropriate adaptation measures to the extreme weather events require rigorous and empirical analysis. The overall goals of this study are to understand physical adaptation measures taken by farmers and the impacts of household and community assets on farmers' adaptation when they face drought. The analyses are based on a unique data set collected from a household survey in three provinces in China. The survey results show that though not common on annual basis, some farmers did use physical adaptation measures to fight drought. Regression analysis reveals that both household and community assets significantly affect farmers' adaptation behaviors. Improving households' social capital and wealth, communities' network and access to government's anti-drought service can facilitate farmers' adaptation to drought. Results indicate that community's irrigation infrastructure and physical adaptation taken by farmers can substitute each other. Further analysis shows that the households taking adaptation measures have higher crop yields than those without taking these measures. The paper concludes with several policy implications.
Climate change poses a serious threat to the future food security of China,which is among the most disaster-prone countries in the world.This paper discusses the implications of climate change for China’s agricultural sector.Its main objectives are to identify the agricultural risks associated with climate change,to introduce a conceptual framework for agricultural climate risk management and to enumerate key adaptation strategies,challenges,and recommendations.
