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国家科技支撑计划(2009BAC51803)

作品数:2 被引量:106H指数:2
相关作者:智协飞李佰平刘樱杨浩高洁更多>>
相关机构:南京信息工程大学更多>>
发文基金:国家科技支撑计划公益性行业(气象)科研专项江苏省“六大人才高峰”高层次人才项目更多>>
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Variation of East Asian Summer Monsoon and Its Relationship with Precipitation of China in Recent 111 Years被引量:8
2011年
Based on the monthly average SLP data in the northern hemisphere from 1899 to 2009, East Asian summer monsoon intensity index in recent 111 years was calculated, and the interdecadal and interannual variation characteristics of East Asian summer monsoon were analyzed. The results showed that East Asian summer monsoon in the 1920s was the strongest. The intensity of East Asian summer monsoon after the middle period of the 1980s presented weakened trend. It was the weakest in the early 21st century. Morlet wavelet analysis found that the interdecadal and interannual variations of East Asian summer monsoon had quasi-10-year and quasi-2-year significance periods. The interannual variation of precipitation in the east of China closely related to intensity variation of East Asian summer monsoon. In strong (weak) East Asian summer monsoon year, the rainfall in the middle and low reaches of Yangtze River was less (more) than that in common year, while the rainfall in North China was more (less) than that in common year. The weakening of East Asian summer monsoon was an important reason for that it was rainless (drought) in North China and rainy (flood) in the middle and low reaches of the Yangtze River after the middle period of the 1980s.
杨浩智协飞高洁刘樱
关键词:VARIATION
ECMWF模式地面气温预报的四种误差订正方法的比较研究被引量:98
2012年
采用均方根误差对欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECWMF)确定性预报模式2007年1月至2010年12月的地面气温预报结果进行评估,并分别利用一元线性回归、多元线性回归、单时效消除偏差和多时效消除偏差平均的订正方法,对ECMWF模式地面气温预报结果进行订正。结果表明,4种订正方法都能有效地减小地面气温多个时效预报的误差,改进幅度约为1℃。在短期预报中仅考虑最新预报结果的一元线性回归订正方法要优于考虑多个预报结果的多元集成预报订正方法。在中期预报中考虑多个预报结果的多元集成预报订正方法更优,更稳定。在模式预报误差较大的情况下,多时效集成的订正方法能更稳定地减小误差。
李佰平智协飞
关键词:ECMWF模式误差订正
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