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国家自然科学基金(40905035)

作品数:7 被引量:140H指数:5
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7 条 记 录,以下是 1-10
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Effect of Boundary Layer Latent Heating on MJO Simulations被引量:7
2013年
A latent heating peak in the PBL was detected in a simulation by a global GCM that failed to reproduce Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). The latent heating peak in the PBL was generated by very shallow convection, which prevented moisture from being transported to the free troposphere. Large amount of moisture was therefore confined to the PBL, leading to a dry bias in the free atmosphere. Suffering from this dry bias, deep convection became lethargic, and MJO signals failed to occur. When the latent heating peak in the PBL was removed in another simulation, reasonable MJO signals, including the eastward propagation and the structure of its large-scale circulation, appeared. We therefore propose that the excessive latent heating peak in the PBL due to hyperactive shallow convection may be a reason for a lack of MJO signals in some simulations by other GCMs as well.
凌健李崇银周文贾小龙Chidong ZHANG
A severe drought event in northern China in winter 2008-2009 and the possible influences of La Nina and Tibetan Plateau
<正>Severe drought occurred in northern China in winter 2008-09 and the La Nina event might have exerted a majo...
Hui Gao and Song Yang 1 National Climate Center,China Meteorological Administration, Beijing,China. 2 Climate Prediction Center,NOAA,Camp Springs,Maryland,USA.
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Impacts of the MJO on Winter Rainfall and Circulation in China被引量:43
2011年
Impacts of the MJO on winter rainfall and circulation in China are investigated using a real-time multivariate MJO index.Composite results using the daily rainfall anomalies and "rainy day" anomalies according to eight different MJO phases show that the MJO has considerable influence on winter rainfall in China. Rainfall anomalies show systematic and substantial changes(enhanced/suppressed) in the Yangtze River Basin and South China with the eastward propagation of the MJO convective center from the Indian Ocean to the western Pacific.When the MJO is in phase 2 and 3(MJO convective center is located over the Indian Ocean),rainfall probability is significantly enhanced.While in phase 6 and 7(MJO convective center is over the western Pacific),rainfall probability is significantly reduced. MJO in winter influences the rainfall in China mainly through modulating the circulation in the subtropics and mid-high latitudes.For the subtropics,MJO influences the northward moisture transport coming from the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea by modulating the southern trough of the Bay of Bengal and the western Pacific subtropical high.For the mid-high latitudes,the propagation of the low frequency perturbations associated with the eastward-propagating MJO convection modulate the circulation in the mid-high latitudes,e.g.the East Asian winter monsoon and the low trough over central Asia.
贾小龙陈丽娟任福民李崇银
关键词:MJOSUBTROPICS
Impacts of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on Winter rainfall and Circulation in China
Impacts of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) on winter rainfall and circulation in china are investigated us...
贾小龙陈丽娟任福民李崇银
关键词:MJO
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Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Intraseasonal Oscillations in the Meridional Wind Field over the Subtropical Northern Pacific被引量:1
2010年
Based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis I daily data from 1958 to 2002,climatic characteristics of the 30-60-day intraseasonal oscillations(ISOs) of the zonal wind(u),meridional wind(v),and geopotential height(h) over global areas and especially the ISO of v over the subtropical northern Pacific are analyzed using the space-time spectrum analysis and wavelet transform methods.The results show that the ISO of v is very different from those of u and h,with the former representing the meridional low-frequency disturbances,which are the most active in the subtropics and mid-high latitudes,but very weak in the tropics.In the subtropical Northern Hemisphere,the energies of the ISOs of u and h are both concentrated on the waves with wave number of 1 and periods of 30-60 days,while the main energy of the ISO of v is concentrated on the waves with wave numbers of 4-6 and periods of 30-60 and 70-90 days.The westward propagating energies for the 30-60-day oscillations of u,v,and h are all stronger than the eastward propagating energies in the subtropics.In addition,the ISO of v is the strongest(weakest) in summer (winter) over the subtropics of East Asia and northwestern Pacific,while the situation is reversed over the subtropical northeastern Pacific,revealing a "seesaw" of the ISO intensity with seasons over the subtropics from the northwestern to northeastern Pacific.In the subtropical northwestern Pacific,the interannual and interdecadal changes of the ISO for v at 850 hPa indicate that its activities are significantly strong during 1958-1975,while obviously weak during 1976-1990,and are the strongest during 1991-2000,and its spectral energy is obviously abnormal but ruleless during the ENSO periods.However,in the 2-7-yr bandpass filtering series,the interannual changes of the v ISO over the subtropical northwestern Pacific contain distinct ENSO signals.And in the 9-yr low-pass filtering series,the v ISO changes over the subtropical northwestern Pacific are significantly out of phase with the chang
韩荣青李维京董敏
关键词:SUBTROPICS
BP-CCA方法用于中国冬季温度和降水的可预报性研究和降尺度季节预测被引量:37
2010年
使用变形的典型相关分析(BP-CCA)方法,基于交叉检验的结果建立了东亚冬季500 hPa大尺度环流和中国冬季温度、降水的最优BP-CCA降尺度预测模型,并在此基础上进行了中国冬季温度和降水的可预报性研究,表明用东亚冬季500hPa高度场降维后的大尺度环流来解释中国冬季温度,平均距平相关系数(ACC)为0.7左右,最高可达0.9,解释中国冬季降水的平均ACC为0.3左右,最高可达0.7,温度的可预报性远高于降水,且二者的可预报水平存在明显的区域差异。可预报性研究表明东亚冬季500 hPa大尺度环流异常与中国冬季温度、降水异常有密切的联系,BP-CCA方法可以很好地揭示大尺度环流与温度、降水的内在联系,并且物理意义清晰。在东亚大尺度环流系统中,东亚大槽和西太平洋副热带高压是影响中国冬季温度、降水异常的重要系统。进一步利用国家气候中心海气耦合模式(CGCM/NCC)回报和预测的500 hPa环流场和BP-CCA方法对温度和降水进行降尺度预测应用,对温度和降水的预测效果明显高于模式直接输出的结果,而且对温度预测的改善高于对降水的改善。对模式预测的环流进行EOF(经验正交函数)分析,表明BP-CCA方法对降尺度要素预报的可预报性来源于CGCM/NCC对500 hPa高度场主要大尺度特征的模拟能力较好。
贾小龙陈丽娟李维京陈德亮
关键词:可预报性降尺度海气耦合模式
Impact of the quasi-biweekly oscillation over the western North Pacific on East Asiansubtropical monsoon during early summer
The impact of quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO)over the western North Pacific on East Asian summer monsoon (EA...
贾小龙杨崧
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2008年海洋和大气环流异常及对中国气候的影响被引量:35
2009年
2008年,尽管总体来看,全国天气气候的持续异常较弱,未发生大范围持续干旱和严重洪涝灾害,但依然出现了非常显著的天气气候异常特征,如全国平均年降水量比常年偏多,为近10年来降水最多的年份;夏季华南降水异常偏多,黄淮降水偏多;年平均气温偏高,但冬季气温偏低,年初南方遭遇罕见低温雨雪冰冻灾害;在南海和西太平洋生成的台风个数明显偏少,但是登陆台风偏多,初台异常偏早。分析发现,2008年赤道中东太平洋总体处在冷水位相,受海洋异常强迫和海气相互作用的影响,北半球大气环流表现出的主要特征是:500hPa西太平洋副高强度和位置变化较大;冬夏季风均偏强;冬春季西太平洋暖池区热带对流活动偏强,夏秋季则偏弱;1月份,亚洲中高纬度经向环流异常发展,2至4月份则以纬向环流为主,春季后期至秋季,经纬向环流的转换较快,环流的持续性较弱。这些环流异常是影响2008年中国气候异常的主要原因。
张培群贾小龙王永光
关键词:大气环流海温气候异常
热带大气季节内振荡(MJO)实时监测预测业务被引量:21
2012年
参考目前国际上普遍认可的Wheeler和Hendon设计的MJO监测指标,设计了适合开展实时业务监测的MJO计算方法,初步在国家气候中心建立了逐日的MJO实时监测业务,通过与国外同类监测结果的比较分析表明,监测指标可以很好地描述MJO的强度和传播特征,与国外同类监测产品有很好的一致性。另外,引入了两种统计方法进行了针对MJO指数的实时预测,对预测结果的检验表明,对MJO在两周内有较好的预测技巧,其中利用滞后线性回归方法(PCL)的预测技巧要高于自回归模型(ARM)。
贾小龙袁媛任福民张勤
关键词:MJO统计预报
热带MJO对2009年11月我国东部大范围雨雪天气的可能影响
本文结合对历史资料的分析,研究了2009年11月热带地区一次强的MJO过程与当年11月我国东部大范围雨雪天气的可能联系,结果表明2009年11月强的MJO过程是我国东部大范围雨雪天气的一个重要的影响因子。MJO对流在11...
贾小龙梁潇云
关键词:雨雪天气热带中高纬
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