您的位置: 专家智库 > >

国家自然科学基金(40505013)

作品数:3 被引量:52H指数:3
相关作者:段晚锁穆穆郑琴戴毅更多>>
相关机构:中国科学院大气物理研究所解放军理工大学更多>>
发文基金:国家自然科学基金国家重点基础研究发展计划中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目更多>>
相关领域:天文地球电子电信更多>>

文献类型

  • 3篇中文期刊文章

领域

  • 3篇天文地球
  • 1篇电子电信

主题

  • 1篇振荡
  • 1篇同化
  • 1篇资料同化
  • 1篇可行性
  • 1篇可预报性
  • 1篇可预报性研究
  • 1篇非线性
  • 1篇变分资料同化
  • 1篇OPTIMA...
  • 1篇PERTUR...
  • 1篇STABIL...
  • 1篇APPLIC...
  • 1篇PREDIC...
  • 1篇ON-OFF

机构

  • 1篇解放军理工大...
  • 1篇中国科学院大...

作者

  • 1篇戴毅
  • 1篇穆穆
  • 1篇郑琴
  • 1篇段晚锁

传媒

  • 1篇科学通报
  • 1篇自然科学进展
  • 1篇Scienc...

年份

  • 2篇2009
  • 1篇2005
3 条 记 录,以下是 1-3
排序方式:
非线性扰动方程方法在具有“on-off”振荡的变分资料同化中的可行性被引量:4
2009年
针对一个含有"on-off"振荡的概念模式,研究了非线性扰动方程的伴随方法(NPE方法)在含有"on-off"振荡的变分资料同化中的可行性与有效性.对解析情形,通过非线性扰动分析给出代价函数关于控制方程初值的梯度表达式并将结果用于同化.比较同化数值实验结果表明:当"on-off"振荡出现在控制方程中时,用传统的伴随方法很难捕捉到目标函数的全局最小值点,而用NPE方法,资料同化基本都能给出全局极小值点.
郑琴戴毅
关键词:变分资料同化
条件非线性最优扰动及其在天气和气候可预报性研究中的应用被引量:19
2005年
条件非线性最优扰动(CNOP)是非线性动力系统中满足一定物理约束条件,且在预报时刻有最大非线性发展的一类初始扰动.它不仅可以代表某一天气或气候事件的“最优前期征兆”,而且可以用来研究预报时刻对预报结果有最大影响的初始误差.在流体运动的(不)稳定性(或敏感性)问题研究中,它还可以代表最不稳定(或最敏感)的初始模态.CNOP还可以被用来估计某一天气或气候事件预报误差的上界.CNOP的上述物理特征在厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)的可预报性研究和海洋热盐环流(THC)的敏感性分析中得到了实现:在一个海气耦合ENSO模式中,CNOP代表了最容易发展成ENSO事件的初始模态(即最优前期征兆);在ENSO事件的预报误差研究中,CNOP代表了在预报时刻对ENSO预报有最大影响的初始误差.当CNOP作为观测ENSO事件的初始扰动时,它给出了ENSO事件预报误差的上界估计;当CNOP作为THC的最不稳定(或最敏感)的初始模态时,它揭示了THC对有限振幅扰动的非线性不对称响应.最后,讨论了CNOP方法在较复杂模式中的应用,结果表明CNOP方法对于较高维数的模式也是适用的,对应的优化算法也是有效的.
穆穆段晚锁
关键词:非线性可预报性
Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation: Applications to stability, sensitivity, and predictability被引量:33
2009年
Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) is a nonlinear generalization of linear singular vector (LSV) and features the largest nonlinear evolution at prediction time for the initial perturbations in a given constraint. It was proposed initially for predicting the limitation of predictability of weather or climate. Then CNOP has been applied to the studies of the problems related to predictability for weather and climate. In this paper, we focus on reviewing the recent advances of CNOP's applications, which involves the ones of CNOP in problems of ENSO amplitude asymmetry, block onset, and the sensitivity analysis of ecosystem and ocean's circulations, etc. Especially, CNOP has been primarily used to construct the initial perturbation fields of ensemble forecasting, and to determine the sensitive area of target observation for precipitations. These works extend CNOP's applications to investigating the nonlinear dynamical behaviors of atmospheric or oceanic systems, even a coupled system, and studying the problem of the transition between the equilibrium states. These contributions not only attack the particular physical problems, but also show the superiority of CNOP to LSV in revealing the effect of nonlinear physical processes. Consequently, CNOP represents the optimal precursors for a weather or climate event; in predictability studies, CNOP stands for the initial error that has the largest negative effect on prediction; and in sensitivity analysis, CNOP is the most unstable (sensitive) mode. In multi-equilibrium state regime, CNOP is the initial perturbation that induces the transition between equilibriums most probably. Furthermore, CNOP has been used to construct ensemble perturbation fields in ensemble forecast studies and to identify sensitive area of target observation. CNOP theory has become more and more substantial. It is expected that CNOP also serves to improve the predictability of the realistic predictions for weather and climate events plays an increasingly important role in exploring th
DUAN WanSuoMU Mu
关键词:OPTIMALPERTURBATIONPREDICTABILITYSTABILITY
共1页<1>
聚类工具0