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高等学校学科创新引智计划(B14019)

作品数:42 被引量:203H指数:6
相关作者:叶明华汤银才汪荣明张日权徐林更多>>
相关机构:华东师范大学安徽师范大学南京财经大学更多>>
发文基金:高等学校学科创新引智计划国家自然科学基金国家社会科学基金更多>>
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42 条 记 录,以下是 1-10
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超高维数据边际经验似然独立筛选方法(英文)被引量:1
2019年
可加模型通过协变量函数对响应变量起作用,是更加灵活的非参统计模型.当协变量个数大于样本数且以指数阶增大时,将维数降到经典方法可解决的范围是统计学家急需解决的问题.本文研究了超高维数据可加模型的变量筛选问题,提出了边际经验似然变量筛选方法.该方法通过排列在0点的边际经验似然率选择变量.我们证明了选择变量集以概率1渐进包含真实变量集;提出了迭代边际经验似然变量筛选方法.数据模拟和实数据分析验证了所提方法的可行性.
张俊英张日权张日权陆智萍
农业气象灾害的空间集聚与政策性农业保险的风险分散——以江、浙、沪、皖71个气象站点降水量的空间分析为例(1980—2014)被引量:4
2016年
搜集1980—2014年江、浙、沪、皖71个气象站点的降水量数据,计算其全域Moran指数,并通过Kriging空间插值和降水量距平百分率法,绘制四省(市)农业旱涝灾害的空间分布图,将农业旱涝灾害的空间分布与政策性农业保险赔付率等级的空间分布进行比对,结果发现:江、浙、沪、皖降水量具有显著的空间正相关性,且表现出波动中增强的态势,受此影响,四省(市)农业旱涝灾害也表现出显著的灾害核心区和辐射区相连的区域集聚特征,而灾害的空间集聚性易导致粮食主产区的政策性农业保险面临较高的赔付风险。据此,须注重提升农业灾害的气象预警与排洪灌溉工程建设的区域协同效应,着力从传统再保险和风险互换角度做好政策性农业保险的风险分散,关注融合国家再保险、保险交易平台和保险与资本市场对接等多重渠道的农业保险巨灾风险管理体系建设。
叶明华
关键词:气象灾害政策性农业保险
Group screening for ultra-high-dimensional feature under linear model被引量:1
2020年
Ultra-high-dimensional data with grouping structures arise naturally in many contemporary statistical problems,such as gene-wide association studies and the multi-factor analysis-of-variance(ANOVA).To address this issue,we proposed a group screening method to do variables selection on groups of variables in linear models.This group screening method is based on a working independence,and sure screening property is also established for our approach.To enhance the finite sample performance,a data-driven thresholding and a two-stage iterative procedure are developed.To the best of our knowledge,screening for grouped variables rarely appeared in the literature,and this method can be regarded as an important and non-trivial extension of screening for individual variables.An extensive simulation study and a real data analysis demonstrate its finite sample performance.
Yong NiuRiquan ZhangJicai LiuHuapeng Li
Convergence rate of principal component analysis with local-linear smoother for functional data under a unified weighing scheme被引量:1
2020年
The unified weighing scheme for the local-linear smoother in analysing functional data can deal with data that are dense,sparse or of neither type.In this paper,we focus on the convergence rate of functional principal component analysis using this method.Almost sure asymptotic consistency and rates of convergence for the estimators of eigenvalues and eigenfunctions have been established.We also provide the convergence rate of the variance estimation of the measurement error.Based on the results,the number of observations within each curve can be of any rate relative to the sample size,which is consistent with the earlier conclusions about the asymptotic properties of the mean and covariance estimators.
Xingyu YanXiaolong PuYingchun ZhouXiaolei Xun
定数截尾数据缺失场合Frechet分布参数的近似极大似然估计被引量:3
2017年
Frechet分布是一种重要的寿命分布,本文给出了在定数截尾数据缺失场合两参数Frechet分布参数的近似极大似然估计,并通过Monto-Carlo模拟说明了本文方法的可行性.
曾林蕊汤银才窦雯
关键词:近似极大似然估计
A class of admissible estimators of multiple regression coefficient with an unknown variance
2020年
Suppose that we observe y|θ,τ∼N_(p)(Xθ,τ^(−1)I_(p)),where θ is an unknown vector with unknown precisionτ.Estimating the regression coefficient θ with known τ has been well studied.However,statistical properties such as admissibility in estimating θ with unknownτare not well studied.Han[(2009).Topics in shrinkage estimation and in causal inference(PhD thesis).Warton School,University of Pennsylvania]appears to be the first to consider the problem,developing sufficient conditions for the admissibility of estimating means of multivariate normal distributions with unknown variance.We generalise the sufficient conditions for admissibility and apply these results to the normal linear regression model.2-level and 3-level hierarchical models with unknown precisionτare investigated when a standard class of hierarchical priors leads to admissible estimators of θ under the normalised squared error loss.One reason to consider this problem is the importance of admissibility in the hierarchical prior selection,and we expect that our study could be helpful in providing some reference for choosing hierarchical priors.
Chengyuan SongDongchu Sun
Quantile treatment effect estimation with dimension reduction
2020年
Quantile treatment effects can be important causal estimands in evaluation of biomedical treatments or interventions for health outcomes such as medical cost and utilisation.We consider their estimation in observational studies with many possible covariates under the assumption that treatment and potential outcomes are independent conditional on all covariates.To obtain valid and efficient treatment effect estimators,we replace the set of all covariates by lower dimensional sets for estimation of the quantiles of potential outcomes.These lower dimensional sets are obtained using sufficient dimension reduction tools and are outcome specific.We justify our choice from efficiency point of view.We prove the asymptotic normality of our estimators and our theory is complemented by some simulation results and an application to data from the University of Wisconsin Health Accountable Care Organization.
Ying ZhangLei WangMenggang YuJun Shao
关键词:CAUSALITY
要素投入、气候变化与粮食生产——基于双函数模型被引量:17
2015年
本文以山东省为例,基于1978—2012年各传统农业投入要素的非平稳性特征和气候变量的随机特性,构建具有联动效应的粮食趋势产量模型和粮食波动产量模型,并就实证结果进行拟合优度检验和显著性检验。研究结果表明,第一,传统农业投入要素依然是促进粮食长期增长的重要变量,然而因为农业科学化和规模化的推进,各传统农业要素对粮食生产的贡献率发生结构性调整,其中农业劳动投入的重要性下降,但是农业机械和农田灌溉面积的贡献率上升;第二,气候变化对粮食生产的短期波动有重要影响,其中水灾和旱灾是农业气候变化最重要的显性指标,而积温和降水量的变化则是导致水旱灾害的隐性因子。应继续坚持完善耕地保护举措,调整和促进传统农业要素投入的动态平衡,并注重农业水利设施投入,扩大有效灌溉面积,同时关注农业灾前预警与灾后多样化融资结构的优化,尤其是政策性农业保险的保障度提升和险种创新,从而保障我国粮食主产区粮食的持续、稳定增产。
叶明华庹国柱
关键词:气候变化生产函数
ASIS算法是否应该广泛采用?(英文)
2014年
本文将辅助-充分交织策略,即Yu和Meng(2011)中提到的ASIS算法,应用于Gibbs抽样算法中以提高两个方差参数的收敛性.我们通过对潜在规模缩减因子(PSRF)、轨迹图及后验估计比较了ASIS算法与普通Gibbs抽样算法的性能,其中一个参数的收敛性有了很大的提高,但另一个参数没有很明显的提高.然而,由于ASIS算法相与普通的Gibbs抽样算法相比极大地减少了为达到收敛所需要的循环次数,整体的抽样性能得到了极大的提高.
刘雅君孙东初
Impact of sufficient dimension reduction in nonparametric estimation of causal effect
2018年
We consider the estimation of causal treatment effect using nonparametric regression orinverse propensity weighting together with sufficient dimension reduction for searching lowdimensional covariate subsets. A special case of this problem is the estimation of a responseeffect with data having ignorable missing response values. An issue that is not well addressedin the literature is whether the estimation of the low-dimensional covariate subsets by sufficient dimension reduction has an impact on the asymptotic variance of the resulting causaleffect estimator. With some incorrect or inaccurate statements, many researchers believe thatthe estimation of the low-dimensional covariate subsets by sufficient dimension reduction doesnot affect the asymptotic variance. We rigorously establish a result showing that this is nottrue unless the low-dimensional covariate subsets include some covariates superfluous for estimation, and including such covariates loses efficiency. Our theory is supplemented by somesimulation results.
Ying ZhangJun ShaoMenggang YuLei Wang
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