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国家重点基础研究发展计划(2010CB950504)

作品数:8 被引量:32H指数:4
相关作者:董文杰丑洁明封国林王启光熊开国更多>>
相关机构:北京师范大学中国气象局国家气候中心中国气象局更多>>
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中国东北半干旱区能量水分循环的同化模拟被引量:5
2014年
使用地球观测系统的中分辨率成像光谱仪(EOS.MODIS)提供的归一化植被指数(NDVI)产品估算植被覆盖度和航天飞机雷达地形测绘任务(SRTM)制成的数字高程模型(DEM)数据遥感产品替换WRF模式默认的植被覆盖度和地形高度,并且利用WRF模式及其先进的三维变分同化系统(WRF.3DVar)循环同化东北半干旱区自动气象站近地面气象要素,对东北半干旱区的温度场、湿度场、风场和能量场的结构及其日变化特征进行了较为细致的模拟研究.通过4组数值模拟试验分别探讨了同化气象要素与改变模式地表参数引起的不同下垫面潜热、感热的分配关系和降水、土壤湿度变化弓f起的地表能量通量模拟效果,并利用通榆站、奈曼站、锦州站、和密云站2009年6-8月的通量观测资料与模拟结果对比检验.结果表明,WRF模式能够较好地模拟出东北半干旱区夏季的近地面温度、风向、净辐射、感热和潜热等要素的变化特征及日变化规律.同化试验(Case2)模拟的近地面气温、相对湿度、风速相比控制性试验(Case1)有所改善;陆面参数试验(Case3)和集合试验(Case4)改善了感热和地表热通量的模拟.WRF模式能较好地模拟出下垫面土壤湿度随时间变化的规律,集合试验(Case4)土壤湿度模拟结果与4个通量站观测值相比无太大差别,但降水的模拟有待改善.本研究利用卫星遥感资料改善模式下垫面陆面参数,利用气象资料同化改善近地面大气要素模拟精度,这是将各种不同空间和时间尺度的多源数据与数值模拟融合的有益尝试.此研究生成的东北地区资料同化数据集可用于气候变化、干旱监测等方面,对深入了解半干旱区气候的形成和维持机理具有重要的意义.
文小航廖小罕袁文平延晓冬韦志刚刘辉志冯锦明吕世华董文杰
关键词:WRF模式资料同化东北半干旱区
Decomposition and Approximation of Multivariate Functions on the Cube
2013年
In this paper, we present a decomposition method of multivariate functions. This method shows that any multivariate function f on [0, 1]d is a finite sum of the form ∑jφjψj , where each φj can be extended to a smooth periodic function, each ψj is an algebraic polynomial, and each φjψj is a product of separated variable type and its smoothness is same as f . Since any smooth periodic function can be approximated well by trigonometric polynomials, using our decomposition method, we find that any smooth multivariate function on [0, 1]d can be approximated well by a combination of algebraic polynomials and trigonometric polynomials. Meanwhile, we give a precise estimate of the approximation error.
Zhi Hua ZHANG
关键词:代数多项式周期函数多变量函数三角多项式
CMIP5/AMIP GCM Simulations of East Asian Summer Monsoon被引量:4
2014年
The East Asian summer monsoon(EASM) is a distinctive component of the Asian climate system and critically influences the economy and society of the region. To understand the ability of AGCMs in capturing the major features of EASM, 10 models that participated in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project/Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5/AMIP), which used observational SST and sea ice to drive AGCMs during the period 1979–2008, were evaluated by comparing with observations and AMIP II simulations. The results indicated that the multi-model ensemble(MME) of CMIP5/AMIP captures the main characteristics of precipitation and monsoon circulation, and shows the best skill in EASM simulation, better than the AMIP II MME. As for the Meiyu/Changma/Baiyu rainbelt, the intensity of rainfall is underestimated in all the models. The biases are caused by a weak western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH) and accompanying eastward southwesterly winds in group I models, and by a too strong and west-extended WPSH as well as westerly winds in group II models. Considerable systematic errors exist in the simulated seasonal migration of rainfall, and the notable northward jumps and rainfall persistence remain a challenge for all the models. However, the CMIP5/AMIP MME is skillful in simulating the western North Pacific monsoon index(WNPMI).
FENG JinmingWEI TingDONG WenjieWU QizhongWANG Yongli
关键词:GCM西太平洋副热带高压大气环流模式西太平洋副高气候系统
Numerical simulation and data assimilation of the water-energy cycle over semiarid northeastern China被引量:1
2014年
The default fractional vegetation cover and terrain height were replaced by the estimated fractional vegetation cover, which was calculated by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI) of Earth Observing System Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(EOS-MODIS) and the Digital Elevation Model of the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission(SRTM) system. The near-surface meteorological elements over northeastern China were assimilated into the three-dimensional variational data assimilation system(3DVar) module in the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model. The structure and daily variations of air temperature, humidity, wind and energy fields over northeastern China were simulated using the WRF model. Four groups of numerical experiments were performed, and the simulation results were analyzed of latent heat flux, sensible heat flux, and their relationships with changes in the surface energy flux due to soil moisture and precipitation over different surfaces. The simulations were compared with observations of the stations Tongyu, Naiman, Jinzhou, and Miyun from June to August, 2009. The results showed that the WRF model achieves high-quality simulations of the diurnal characteristics of the surface layer temperature, wind direction, net radiation, sensible heat flux, and latent heat flux over semiarid northeastern China in the summer. The simulated near-surface temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed were improved in the data assimilation case(Case 2) compared with control case(Case 1). The simulated sensible heat fluxes and surface heat fluxes were improved by the land surface parameterization case(Case 3) and the combined case(Case 4). The simulated temporal variations in soil moisture over the northeastern arid areas agree well with observations in Case 4, but the simulated precipitation should be improved in the WRF model. This study could improve the land surface parameters by utilizing remote sensing data and could further improve atmospheric elements with a data assimilation system. This w
WEN XiaoHangLIAO XiaoHanYUAN WenPingYAN XiaoDongWEI ZhiGangLIU HuiZhiFENG JinMingLU ShiHuaDONG WenJie
关键词:东北半干旱区数据同化地球观测系统
定量评估气候变化影响经济产出的方法被引量:10
2011年
将经济-气候模型(C-D-C),推广成一个预测"气候变化影响量"的方法,可以对未来气候变化对经济产出的影响给予定量的评估.为了对该定量评估方法的可行性进行验证,提出了一个从实际资料中提取实际的"气候变化影响量"的办法来进行历史回报检验.用中国8个农业区域1980-2000年的不同粮食作物资料和粮食总量资料以及中国160站点的1980-2000年气象资料对该经济模型方法进行了历史回报检验,结果表明该方法具有一定合理性、可靠性和较好的运用效果,并得出了一些有意义的结论.本文将经济学的成果引入全球气候变化研究,希望能为进一步开展该领域研究提供参考.
丑洁明董文杰封国林
关键词:气候变化经济产出
构建中国应对气候变化的低碳经济发展模式被引量:5
2011年
低碳经济是一种新型的发展模式,是一个涉及经济、政治、社会、科技、环境乃至国际合作诸多领域的系统性问题。发展低碳经济是我国应对气候变化与环境危机的根本出路,解决好经济发展和环境保护的矛盾是构建我国低碳经济发展模式的根本原则。构建我国低碳经济发展模式关键在于制度保障,当前应特别强调和发挥经济政策在发展低碳经济中的引导作用。
丑洁明封国林董文杰
关键词:低碳经济气候变化
The methodology of quantitative assess economic output of climate change被引量:1
2011年
A method is introduced in this paper to study the effect of future climatic change on the economy.The researchers determine the economic output of climate change from historical data,and provide a method to quantitatively predict economic output of climate change by an economic-climatic model.A historical reciprocating examination is used to analyze output data for various crops in eight agricultural areas in China and meteorological data from 160 observatories in China from 1980 to 2000.The results show that the methods used are reasonable to a certain extent and good in application.
CHOU JieMingDONG WenJieFENG GuoLin
关键词:未来气候变化输出数据气象数据
时间滞后对全球温度场关联性的影响被引量:7
2011年
基于美国国家环境预报中心/美国国家大气研究中心以及欧洲中期天气预报中心发布的再分析资料,构建了考虑时间滞后情况下的全球温度场关联矩阵,分析了时间滞后对全球温度场关联性时空特征的影响.结果表明:随着滞后时间的增加,全球温度场的关联性总体呈逐渐减弱的趋势,但对应不同的滞后时间其规律也不同,在滞后1—30d的情况下,可根据全球平均关联系数C—glb的下降快慢大体将其划分为滞后1—7d,8—20d和21—30d三个阶段.在滞后8—20d的情况下,C—glb表现出明显的不稳定特征,这从另一角度解释了10—30d延伸期预报困难的可能原因.温度场关联系数的空间分布没有随滞后时间的增加发生明显变化,合成分析表明其差值的空间分布总体呈沿纬向的带状分布,北半球中纬度的亚洲大陆大部以及赤道中东太平洋地区的关联系数随滞后时间的变化趋势分别与同纬度的其他地区相反.
支蓉龚志强王启光熊开国
关键词:温度场关联矩阵时间滞后
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