In this paper, the early warning signals of abrupt temperature change in different regions of China are investigated.Seven regions are divided on the basis of different climate temperature patterns, obtained through the rotated empirical orthogonal function, and the signal-to-noise temperature ratios for each region are then calculated. Based on the concept of critical slowing down, the temperature data that contain noise in the different regions of China are preprocessed to study the early warning signals of abrupt climate change. First, the Mann–Kendall method is used to identify the instant of abrupt climate change in the temperature data. Second, autocorrelation coefficients that can identify critical slowing down are calculated. The results show that the critical slowing down phenomenon appeared in temperature data about 5–10 years before abrupt climate change occurred, which indicates that the critical slowing down phenomenon is a possible early warning signal for abrupt climate change, and that noise has less influence on the detection results of the early warning signals. Accordingly, this demonstrates that the model is reliable in identifying the early warning signals of abrupt climate change based on detecting the critical slowing down phenomenon, which provides an experimental basis for the actual application of the method.
Based on the skewed function,the most probable temperature is defined and the spatiotemporal distributions of the frequencies and strengths of extreme temperature events in different climate states over China are investigated,where the climate states are referred to as State I,State II and State III,i.e.,the daily minimum temperature records of 1961-1990,1971-2000,and 1981-2009.The results show that in space the frequency of high temperature events in summer decreases clearly in the lower and middle reaches of the Yellow River in State I and that low temperature events decrease in northern China in State II.In the present state,the frequency of high temperature events increases significantly in most areas over China except the north east,while the frequency of low temperature events decreases mainly in north China and the regions between the Yangtze River and the Yellow River.The distributions of frequencies and strengths of extreme temperature events are consistent in space.The analysis of time evolution of extreme events shows that the occurrence of high temperature events become higher with the change in state,while that of low temperature events decreases.High temperature events are becoming stronger as well and deserve to be paid special attention.
The pick-up algorithm by the k-th order cluster for the closest distance is used in the fields of weather and climactic events,and the technical terms clustered index and high clustered region are defined to investigate their temporal and spatial distribution characteristics in China during the past 50 years.The results show that the contribution of extreme high-temperature event clusters changed in the period from the 1960s to the 1970s,and its strength was enhanced.On the other hand,the decreasing trend in the clusters of low-temperature extremes can be taken as a signal for warmer winters to follow in the decadal time scale.Torrential rain and heavy rainfall clusters have both been lessened in the past 50 years,and have different cluster characteristics because of their definitions.Regions with high clustered indexes are concentrated in southern China.The spatial evolution of the heavy rainfall clusters reveals that clustered heavy rainfall has played an important role in the rain-belt pattern over China during the last 50 years.
