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国家高技术研究发展计划(2013AA122002)

作品数:15 被引量:68H指数:6
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基于LPJ模型的中亚地区植被净初级生产力与蒸散模拟被引量:14
2015年
中亚干旱区是对全球气候变化最敏感的区域之一,以草地和耕地为主的植被类型极易受到水资源短缺和人为等因素影响,导致生态环境极易恶化,故分析其植被净初级生产力(NPP)和蒸散(ET)变化特征及对气候的响应具有重要意义。本研究利用LPJ模型模拟中亚地区1982-2012年NPP和ET,并分析其在中亚潜在植被类型中的空间分布和变化特征。结果表明,1)NPP和ET的高低值空间分布基本一致,高值区主要分布在林地、草林地混合区以及耕地区,低值区主要分布在植被稀少的荒漠周边区域和哈萨克中部草地区;2)NPP总量和ET总量均呈波动上升趋势,其中NPP年度变化范围在469.59-1 130.26 Tg C·a-1,年均值为737.24 Tg C·a-1(185.57 g C·m-2·a-1),ET范围在695.53-1 047.69 km3·a-1,年均值为850.46 km3·a-1(214.07 mm·a-1);3)影响中亚地区植被NPP和ET变化的气候因子主要为降水,温度影响相对较弱;4)吉尔吉斯斯坦和塔吉克斯坦植被生产力增长较快,哈萨克斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦和新疆较为稳定,土库曼斯坦植被生产力出现下降现象。
张建财张丽郑艺田向军周宇
非线性集合四维变分同化方法NLS-4DVar之局地化改进被引量:2
2016年
四维变分同化可利用同化窗口内所有可能的观测信息优化大气、海洋模式的初始场,从而极大地提高大气、海洋模式模拟性能,而作为4DVar标准算法的伴随方法始终无法避免繁琐与复杂的预报模式伴随方程的编程、维护以及更新。为避免伴随模式的使用,集合四维变分方法,4DEnVar方法被逐渐开发,为4DVar的求解提供了一种便捷的途径。4DEnVar一般通过局地化过程消除样本不足所造成的虚假相关,而局地化方案的不同也必然会影响到其最终的同化效果。本文将一种集合样本扩展的局地化方案引入到基于Gaussian-Newton迭代算法的非线性集合四维变分同化方法NLS-4DVar中,从而避免了原算法中为进行局地化过程而额外需要的线性化假设,使得算法收敛更稳定。另外,通过将原Gaussian-Newton迭代序列进行变形、避免了矩阵的直接求逆,极大地提高了同化算法的计算效率。利用非线性动力模型Lorenz-96所开展的观测系统模拟试验表明:采用新的样本扩展型局地化方案的NLS-4DVar算法,其同化精度略优于NLS-4DVar原始算法,由于避免了矩阵的直接求逆,其计算效率反而有所提高,同化所需时间有所降低,对于大气与海洋数据同化领域的应用具有极大的潜力。
张洪芹田向军张承明
关键词:共轭梯度法
大气反演模型模拟的CO_2浓度与GOSAT卫星观测值的对比(英文)
2015年
大气CO2反演法是碳浓度/源汇估算的重要方法,其估算精度一直受观测数据不足的制约,而CO2卫星观测数据的出现必将改变这一现状.将大气反演模型CTDAS模拟浓度与GOSAT-ACOS3.3卫星观测值作对比,以分析观测与模拟CO2浓度间的误差分布特征,为CTDAS同化GOSAT数据作前沿性技术探讨结果表明,CTDAS与GOSAT的CO2数据相关性较好,其全球浓度平均差异(CTDAS—GOSAT)为(-0.11±1.81)ppm.在2009~2010年之间,观测与模拟值问的最大纬度偏差出现在0°-15°N间,其纬度问的误差达~4ppm,说明该区的CTDAS浓度模拟值可能存在很大的不确定性.同时,我们也对不同半球及不同洲际间的CO2浓度作了对比研究表明,全球各区的平均浓度差异均小于-1ppm,但不同区域间CO2差异分布明显不同.其中,北半球陆地CO2差异的相关性明显优于南半球.总之,CTDAS与GOSAT的CO2数据有较好的一致性,其对比结果将为下一步的卫星同化工作提供重要指导.
张慧芳陈报章许光严建武车明亮陈婧房世峰林晓凤孙少波
关键词:大气CO2低纬度地区资料同化全球碳循环
Assessment of the Biospheric Contribution to Surface Atmospheric CO_2 Concentrations over East Asia with a Regional Chemical Transport Model被引量:4
2015年
A regional chemical transport model, RAMS-CMAQ, was employed to assess the impacts of biosphere–atmosphere CO2 exchange on seasonal variations in atmospheric CO2 concentrations over East Asia. Simulated CO2 concentrations were compared with observations at 12 surface stations and the comparison showed they were generally in good agreement. Both observations and simulations suggested that surface CO2 over East Asia features a summertime trough due to biospheric absorption, while in some urban areas surface CO2 has a distinct summer peak, which could be attributed to the strong impact from anthropogenic emissions. Analysis of the model results indicated that biospheric fluxes and fossil-fuel emissions are comparably important in shaping spatial distributions of CO2 near the surface over East Asia. Biospheric flux plays an important role in the prevailing spatial pattern of CO2 enhancement and reduction on the synoptic scale due to the strong seasonality of biospheric CO2 flux. The elevation of CO2 levels by the biosphere during winter was found to be larger than 5ppm in North China and Southeast China, and during summertime a significant depletion( 7 ppm) occurred in most areas,except for the Indo-China Peninsula where positive bioflux values were found.
KOU XingxiaZHANG MeigenPENG ZhenWANG Yinghong
关键词:大气CO2浓度生物圈二氧化碳浓度
多重网格策略的NLS-3DVar方法及其在气温数据融合中的应用
NLS-3DVar是一种非线性的迭代地来求解代价函数的方法,采用了集合扩展局地化方案之后的NLS不仅保持了原有的计算精度,同时提高了计算效率。美国NOAA开发的LAPS中的STMAS方法(Space-Time Multi...
田向军
关键词:多重网格数据融合
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基于区域大气化学模式的东亚地区地表CO2通量反演研究
大气CO2'净排放'估算是应对气候变化碳收支认证的一个关键点[1,2]。通过资料同化技术结合大气化学传输模式和观测资料,是反演排放源的有效方法,在很大程度上降低了排放源估算的不确定性[36]。考虑到区域大气化学传输模式在...
寇星霞田向军张美根彭珍张小玲
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Model-Simulated Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide: Comparisons with Satellite Retrievals and Ground-Based Observations
2014年
Atmospheric CO2 concentrations from January 2010 to December 2010 were simulated using the GEOS-Chem(Goddard Earth Observing System-Chemistry) model and the results were compared to satellite Gases Observing Satellite(GOSAT) and ground-based the Total Carbon Column Observing Network(TCCON) data. It was found that CO2 concentrations based on GOSAT satellite retrievals were generally higher than those simulated by GEOS-Chem. The differences over the land area in January and April ranged from 1 to 2 ppm, and there were major differences in June and August. At high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere in June, as well as south of the Sahara, the difference was greater than 5 ppm. In the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere the model results were higher than the GOSAT retrievals, while in South America the satellite data were higher. The trend of the difference in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and the Saharan region in August was opposite to June. Maximum correlation coefficients were found in April, reaching 0.72, but were smaller in June and August. In January, the correlation coefficient was only 0.36. The comparisons between GEOS-Chem data and TCCON observations showed better results than the comparison between GEOS and GOSAT. The correlation coefficients ranged between 0.42(Darwin) and 0.92(Izana). Analysis of the results indicated that the inconsistency between satellite observations and model simulations depended on inversion errors caused by data inaccuracies of the model simulation's inputs, as well as the mismatch of satellite retrieval model input parameters.
WANG Jiang-NanTIAN Xiang-JunFU Yu
关键词:二氧化碳浓度卫星反演高纬度地区地球观测系统
A Local Implementation of the POD-Based Ensemble 4DVar with R-Localization
2014年
The purpose of this paper is to provide a robust and flexible implementation of a proper orthogonal decomposition-based ensemble four-dimensional variational assimilation method(PODEn4DVar) through Rlocalization.With R-localization,the implementation of the local PODEn4DVar analysis can be coded for parallelization with enhanced assimilation precision.The feasibility and effectiveness of the PODEn4DVar local implementation with R-localization are demonstrated in a two-dimensional shallow-water equation model with simulated observations(OSSEs) in comparison with the original version of the PODEn4DVar with B-localization and that without localization.The performance of the PODEn4DVar with localization shows a significant improvement over the scheme with no localization,particularly under the imperfect model scenario.Moreover,the R-localization scheme is capable of outperforming the Blocalization case to a certain extent.Further,the assimilation experiments also demonstrate that PODEn4DVar with R-localization is most efficient due to its easy parallel implementation.
TIAN Xiang-Jun
An Economical Approach to Flow-Adaptive Moderation of Spurious Ensemble Correlations and Its Application in the Proper Orthogonal Decomposition-Based Ensemble Four Dimensional Variational Assimilation Method
2015年
The purpose of this study is to describe an economical approach to an existing adaptive localization technique and its implementation in the proper orthogonal decomposition-based ensemble four-dimensional variational assimilation method(PODEn4DVar). Owing to the applications of the sparse processing and EOF decomposition techniques, the computational costs of this proposed sparse flow-adaptive moderation(SFAM) localization scheme are significantly reduced. The effectiveness of PODEn4 DVar with SFAM localization is demonstrated by using the Lorenz-96 model in comparison with the Smoothed ENsemble Correlations Raised to a Power(SENCORP) and static localization schemes, separately. The performance of PODEn4 DVar with SFAM localization shows a moderate improvement over the schemes with SENCORP and static localization, with low computational costs under the imperfect model.
ZHANG Hong-QinTIAN Xiang-JunZHANG Cheng-Ming
关键词:PROPERENSEMBLE
集合最优插值同化方法在珠三角空气质量模拟中的初步应用被引量:8
2014年
本文旨在探讨集合最优插值(EnOI)同化方法对MM5-STEM空气质量模式污染物浓度预报场的修正能力,先从局地化尺度(L)及经验系数(α)的敏感性试验中获得NO2、SO2和PM10各自的"最优L和α组合",然后对此参数设置下的同化结果进行分析.研究结果显示,EnOI在NO2、SO2及PM10的同化试验中均取得较好的效果,检验站点均方根误差(RMSE)的平均下降比例分别可达33%、32%和42%,RMSE值下降的站点占检验站点总数的比例分别为86%、84%和91%.表明该方法能够有效地应用在珠三角空气质量模拟中,产生与实际更为接近的污染物浓度预报场.
张金谱胡嘉镗王雪梅
关键词:MM5STEM珠三角空气质量数据同化
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