Based on the conventional ground observational data,a numerical simulation and moist potential vorticity( MPV) analysis has been carried on heavy rainfall event over Jiangxi province from 19 June to 20 June 2010,with a meso-scale rainstorm model. The results show that this rare rainstorm is a typical heavy rainfall over Meiyu front. The cold air flow behind North China vortex joined up the southwestern flow located in the northwest part of the strong and stable subtropical high,thus the cold air and warm air converged and maintained over the northern part of Hunan and Jiangxi province. The simulated precipitation of the high resolution model is very similar to the observational rainfall. The model has a good predictive skill for the location,intensity and center of heavy rainfall. By moist potential vorticity analysis,it is found that the distribution characteristic of MPV which heavy rainfall happens ahead has an obvious indication for precipitation forecast. The vertical overlapping of the positive and negative MPV1 areas is favorable to the generation and development of rainstorm. This zone is also the conjoint area of convective instability and baroclinic instability.
The characteristics and causes of a drop in temperature during a cold wave process in the early winter of 2020/2021 were analyzed.The results show that the air temperature at 700-600 hPa over China was firstly and mostly influenced by the cold wave process,and then the cold air gradually extended to the lower layer,causing the most severe cooling in North China and its nearby areas.During the cold wave,the longitude of the upper-level jet over the Chinese mainland was larger;the Ural blocking high and the East Asian trough were stronger,so that the geopotential height gradient between the two was also significantly larger;the meridional air flow was abnormally strong,which was conducive to the southward transport of cold air from the middle and high latitudes.Results of the diagnostic analysis further show that the outbreak of the cold wave and the negative temperature tendency anomaly in the key area were mainly caused by the meridional temperature horizontal advection anomaly,while the temperature rise accompanied by abnormal air subsidence compensated for the abnormal decrease in temperature,which was conducive to the gradual rise of temperature in the key area.
Ju WANGTianju WANGHong HUANGBanghui HUXuezhong WANG
A convection-allowing ensemble forecast experiment on a squall line was conducted based on the breeding growth mode （BGM）. Meanwhile, the probability matched mean （PMM） and neighborhood ensemble probability （NEP） methods were used to optimize the associated precipitation forecast. The ensemble forecast predicted the precipita- tion tendency accurately, which was closer to the observation than in the control forecast. For heavy rainfall, the pre- cipitation center produced by the ensemble forecast was also better. The Fractions Skill Score （FSS） results indicated that the ensemble mean was skillful in light rainfall, while the PMM produced better probability distribution of pre- cipitation for heavy rainfall. Preliminary results demonstrated that convection-allowing ensemble forecast could im- prove precipitation forecast skill through providing valuable probability forecasts. It is necessary to employ new methods, such as the PMM and NEP, to generate precipitation probability forecasts. Nonetheless, the lack of spread and the overprediction of precipitation by the ensemble members are still problems that need to be solved.
xiang lihongrang hechaohui chenziqing miaoshigang bai
The mesoscale vortex associated with a mesoscale low-level jet （mLLJ） usually causes heavy rainfall in the col field. The col field is defined as a region between two highs and two lows, with the isobaric surface similar to a col. Using a two-dimensional shallow water model, the meso-β scale vortex couplets （MβVCs） induced by eight types of mesoscale wind perturbations in an ideal col field were numerically simulated. With the sizes of -100 km, the MβVCs induced by northerly perturbation （NP） and southerly perturbation （SP） moved toward the col point. The sizes of MβVCs induced by southwesterly perturbation （SWP）, southeasterly perturbation （SEP）, northwesterly perturbation （NWP）, and northeasterly perturbation （NEP） were relatively small for the perturbations moving toward dilatation axis. The MβVC induced by easterly perturbation （EP） and westerly perturbation （WP） could not develop because they quickly moved away from the col point, before the circulation could form. The size of the circulation was determined by the distance between the vortex and the col point. The closer to the col point the vortex was, the larger the size of vortex. The comparisons of maximum vorticity and vorticity root mean square error （RMSE） of the NP, the SWP, and the WP show that the maximum vorticity and the vorticity RMSE of the NP decreased slower than other perturbations. Therefore, the weak environment of the col field favors the maintenance of vorticity and the formation of vortex. When a mesoscale vortex forms near the col point or moves toward the col point, it may maintain a quasitationary state in the stable col field.
Based on the dynamic framework of Lorenz 96 model,the ensemble prediction system(EPS)containing stochastic forcing has been developed.In this system,effects of stochastic forcing on the model climate state and ensemble mean prediction have been studied.The results show that the climate mean and standard deviation provided by a new computing paradigm by means of introduction of the proper stochastic forcing into numerical model integration process are closer to that of the true value than that made by the non-stochastic forcing.In other words,numerical model integration process with stochastic forcing has positive effect on the model climate state,and the effect is found to be positive mainly in the long lead time.Meanwhile,with respect to ensemble forecast effect yielded by white noise stochastic forcing,most results are better than those provided by no-stochastic forcing,and improvements pertaining to white noise stochastic forcing vary non-monotonically with the increase of the size of white noise.Moreover,the effects made by the identical white noise stochastic forcing also are different in various non-linear systems.With respect to EPS effect yielded by red noise stochastic forcing,most results are better than those provided by no-stochastic forcing,but only a part of ensemble forecast effect influenced by red noise is superior to that influenced by white noise.Finally,improvements pertaining to red noise stochastic forcing vary non-symmetrically and non-monotonically with the distribution of coefficientΦ.Besides,the selection of correlation coefficientΦis also dependent on non-linear models.
[Objective] The aim was to discuss the heavy rainfall formation mechanism and to reveal the causes of rainstorm. [Method] Based on the conventional observational data, a numerical simulation and diagnosis analyses have been carried on heavy rainfall event over Jiangxi province from 16 June to 20 June 2010, with a meso-scale REM model. The results showed that this rare rainstorm was a typical heavy rainfall over Meiyu front. The cold air flow behind the 500 hPa East Asia trough and 700 hPa North China vortex joined up the southwestern flow located in the northwest part of the strong and stable subtropical high, thus the cold air and warm air converged and maintained over the northern part of Hunan and Jiangxi province. Since the area that cold air and warm air joined up was stable and the southwestern warm and wet flow was abnormally strong, the vapor, dynamical, and thermodynamic conditions was leading to the trigger development of meso-scale convection systems. The extraordinary rainstorm was caused by the interaction of many factors such as strong vapor and convergence ascending motion, weak cold air activities in middle-levels, the strengthening of southwestern low-level jet, the formation and maintenance of southwestern vortexes, etc. The simulated precipitation of the high resolution model was very similar with the observational rainfall. The model had a good predictive skill for the location, intensity and center of heavy rainfall. By diagnosing the physical variables, it found that the distribution characteristic of the physical variables had an obvious indication for precipitation forecast. [Conclusion] The study provided reference to improve rainstorm forecast.
The evolution of spiral-band-like structures triggered by asymmetric heating in three tropical-cyclone-like vortices of different intensities is examined using the Three-Dimensional Vortex Perturbation Analyzer and Simulator （3DVPAS） model. To simulate the spiral bands, asymmetric thermal perturbations are imposed on the radius of maximum wind （RMW） of vortices, which can be considered as the location near the eyewall of real tropical cyclones （TCs）. All the three vortices experience a hydrostatic adjustment after the introduction of thermal asymmetries. It takes more time for weaker and stable vortices to finish such a process. The spiral-band-like structures, especially those distant from the vortex centers, form and evolve accompanying this process. In the quasi-balance state, the spiral bands are gradually concentrated to the inner core, the wave behavior of which resembles the features of classic vortex Rossby （VR） waves. The unstable vortices regain nonhydrostatic features after the quasi-balance stage. The spiral bands further from the vortex center, similar to distant spiral bands in real TCs, form and maintain more easily in the moderate basic-state vortex, satisfying the conditions of barotropic instability. The widest radial extent and longest-lived distant bands always exist in weak and stable vortices. This study represents an attempt to determine the role of TC intensity and stability in the formation and evolution of spiral bands via hydrostatic balance adjustment, and provides some valuable insights into the formation of distant spiral rainbands.
