以Cobb-Douglas函数为核心,以西藏自治区1990～2008年的农业统计数据为基础,综合运用最小二乘法回归（ordinary least squares,OLS）和经验法估计出资本和劳动力产出弹性。继而运用索洛余值法测算和预测1990～2015年西藏自治区的农业科技进步贡献率。计算结果表明,西藏自治区农业科技进步贡献率稳步上升,2008年达到了37.4%,预计2015年达到45.4%～49%,但投资拉动特征明显。最后,基于测算与预测结果向自治区有关部门提出相关建议。
以Cobb-Douglas函数为核心,以西藏自治区1990-2008年的统计数据为基础,综合运用最小二乘法回归（ordinary least squares,OLS）、势分析法、调整法和经验法估计出资本和劳动力产出弹性。继而运用索洛余值法测算和预测2009-2015年西藏自治区的科技进步贡献率。计算结果表明,西藏自治区科技进步贡献率稳步上升,2008年达到了30.8%,预计2015年达到40.7%,但投资拉动特征明显。最后,基于测算与预测结果向自治区有关部门提出相关建议。
[Objective] The aim was to provide scientific reference for the production of silage maize in correlated regions of Tibet.[Method] Effects of film mulching on the growth period,growth traits and yield of silage maize and weed were analyzed.[Result] Under the treatment of film mulching,the growth period of silage maize could be advanced for 7-16 d; the plant length,stem diameter and leaf area were increased; and the grain output was increased by 75.9%.According to the market price of silage maize in 2008,22 500 Yuan/hm^2 was increased.There were 13 kinds of weeds in silage maize field,which belonged to 13 genera,8 families.Among them,6 kinds of weeds belonged to Gramineae,among which Echinochloa crusgalli and Setaria viridis were dominated in the weed communities.Plantago depressa,Eragrostis pilosa and Malva verticillata var.chinensis could be totally controlled by the film mulching; meanwhile the others could be also controlled in a certain degree except Echinochloa crusgalli.[Conclusion] The plastic mulching planting is worth popularizing for the developing of animal husbandry and the incoming of the local farmers in Tibet.
